By Kirk Maltais


--Soybeans for November delivery fell 1.2% to $14.61 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Wednesday, with a strong soybean crop in Brazil getting support from adequate rainfall.

--Corn for December delivery fell 0.9% to $6.85 1/2 a bushel.

--Wheat for December delivery rose 1.1% to $9.03 3/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Precipitation Anticipation: Wetter planting weather for Brazilian soybean crops applied pressure to CBOT most-active soybean futures today. "Brazil's weather forecast improves this week with scattered rainfall expected across most of the growing areas," said Terry Reilly of Futures International in a note. Heightened rainfall forecasts come after the latest estimates from Conab showed a 21% jump in the size of the soybean crop in the next marketing year - which is expected to alleviate the tightness seen in a smaller-than-anticipated U.S. crop. Meanwhile, Argentina is expected to receive only light rainfall - but is still selling more soybean exports using a special exchange rate for pesos and U.S. dollars.

Escalating Hostility: Heightened turmoil surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war pushed CBOT wheat up past the $9 per bushel mark today, this after rising yesterday by 7.6%. "All commodity prices rose sharply yesterday, with the Ukrainian corridor being challenged by mounting tensions with Russia," said AgriTel in a note. In a national address, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to "use all the instruments at its disposal" to fight the war, and ordered reservists with the Russian military to mobilize. The comments join others made by Russian leaders suggesting that using nuclear weapons could be in their gameplan. The signs of aggression have traders questioning the viability of the grains export corridor deal that's been in place since July.

Carry That Weight: Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of another 75-basis point rate hike, grain futures trading on the CBOT stepped up selling - although moves post-announcement were limited. For grains, a strengthening USD is making U.S. exports less attractive on the world market - a trend that is expected to continue. "Assuming the Fed raises benchmark rates another 1-2 times after today, capital will continue to flow into the USD," said AgResource in a note.


INSIGHTS


Quick Cuts: A weaker-than-expected report from the EIA showing daily U.S. ethanol production at its lowest since February 2021 has traders anticipating further selling in CBOT corn futures ahead. "If you looked in the entire report, demand looked weak in almost every major category - that's raising concerns of a bigger slowdown in the economy," Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group told the WSJ. Mr. Flynn adds that while other issues like a strong U.S. dollar are putting negative pressure on corn, today's ethanol surprise won't reverse that trend. "It's not going to be helpful," he said.

Turn Around: U.S. grain export sales may turn higher than seen in the previous week, according to grain traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Traders forecast that corn sales may rise to as much as 1.1 million metric tons, while soybean sales could climb to as much as 1.3 million tons. Both of these figures would be well above last week's figures reported by the USDA. For the week ended September 8, corn sales totaled 583,100 tons, while soybeans totaled 873,000 tons.

Lingering Disruptions: General Mills said on a call with analysts today that supply-chain disruptions are still very real and that costs of serving volume will remain higher. Service levels have improved to the low-to-mid 80% range, but are still below the usual 98%, executives said. Pricing hasn't affected consumer demand as much as the company expected, though that will likely change.


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Cold Storage report at 3 p.m. ET Thursday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Livestock Slaughter report at 3 p.m. ET Thursday.


Jaewon Kang contributed to this article.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

09-21-22 1456ET