The recovery is reflected in the economic confidence surveys. The psychological effect will be amplified by the statistics that will start to come in and which should be excellent in year-on-year comparison, since entire sectors of the economy were at a standstill in the spring of 2020. Of course, the exception is the tourism, travel, entertainment, and events sectors, for which the "end of the tunnel" has been getting further and further away.

But nothing seems capable of derailing the central scenario of economic recovery. So far, events surrounding GameStop, Greensill and Archegos have created volatility but remain exceptions. The somewhat rapid rise in bond yields has created some worries and allowed the doomsayers to raise an inflationary threat. This is probably the point to watch in the coming weeks for those who enjoy the endless debates. On the Debt front with a capital "D", a topic I saw coming back with the spring, it is quiet thanks to the global consensus that "we'll deal with it later". The main risk from this point of view, for the future, is a strong asymmetry in the pace of deleveraging between the different economic blocs, which would be a source of risk. But we are not there yet.

While everyone was predicting business as usual, the OPEC + is finally announcing a gradual increase in production over the coming months. The group has agreed to increase production by just over 2 million barrels per day between May and July. A sign that the organization is thinking about an economic recovery, despite a slow vaccination plan and an increase in new cases in Europe. But the market seems to see a sign of a recovery in demand.

Meanwhile, in a speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs prior to the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for a global minimum tax rate on corporations as the Biden administration's plans to raise taxes on U.S. corporations sparked much debate.

According to Yellen, the introduction of a global minimum corporate tax rate would put an end to the race to the bottom that has been going on for the past 30 years. The proposal is a cornerstone of Joe Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure renewal plan, which would raise the corporate tax rate to 28 percent from the current 21 percent while eliminating certain deductions associated with foreign earnings.

 

Economic highlights of the day

The February unemployment rate in the euro zone (11:00 am) and the JOLTS survey on job creation in the United States (4:00 pm) are coming up. Yesterday, the ISM services index in the US surged.

Growth in U.S. manufacturing activity accelerated more than expected in March to a peak, led by strong growth in new orders, a sign that a clear recovery in the economy is underway. The ISM manufacturing index rose to 64.7, the highest since December 1983, from 60.8 the previous month, according to the Institute for Supply Management's monthly survey. Economists on average expected a more modest improvement to 61.3.

The U.S. economy added significantly more jobs than expected in March as a result of the Biden administration's stimulus package. The Labor Department reported 916,000 new nonfarm payrolls last month, compared to an average of 647,000 expected by economists. The unemployment rate fell to 6.0% in March, in line with consensus, after 6.2% in February. Growth for 2021 as a whole could exceed 7%, which would be its fastest pace since 1984. The U.S. economy contracted 3.5% in 2020, its worst performance in 74 years.

Chinese manufacturing companies reported further improvement in operating conditions in March. Production and new orders continued to grow, albeit at moderate rates, while employment moved closer to stabilization. At 50.6 in March, the seasonally adjusted headline PMI™ - a composite indicator designed to provide a single-digit snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy - signaled a sustained improvement in the health of China's manufacturing sector. However, the index fell from 50.9 in February.

 

On markets:

* Japan Airlines (JAL) announced Tuesday that it has retired its 13 Boeing 777 aircraft equipped with Raytheon-owned Pratt & Whitney engines from its fleet a year early, having suspended their use in February after a similar United aircraft suffered engine failure.

* Moderna is up 1.1% in pre-market trading. According to the Wall Street Journal, its partner CATALENT has signed an agreement to almost double its production in the United States of the COVID-19 vaccine developed by the American laboratory.

* Reuters has learned revealed that Credit Suisse had set prices for the sale of blocks of shares in the companies in connection with the collapse of the Archegos Capital fund.

* Tesla’s founder and CEO, Elon Musk, climbs from 31st to 2nd place in the latest Forbes global billionaire rankings, still dominated by AMAZON founder Jeff Bezos.

* Blackrock and Canadian rival Brookfield Asset Management are out of the running to buy a stake in Saudi giant Aramco's oil pipeline business, a deal worth up to $10 billion (€8.5 billion), according to two sources familiar with the negotiations.

* Phillips 66 expects a larger-than-expected first-quarter loss, citing the historic cold snap that has affected its Gulf of Mexico operations.

* KKR - The private equity firm announced Tuesday that it has raised $15 billion (€12.7 billion) for its fourth Asia Pacific fund, the largest to date.

* Apple - Revenue from the company's new news platform, Apple News, is expected to reach $1 billion this year and $2.2 billion by 2023, reads a note from Cowen & Co.