Projected Income Statement: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 -8,554 -11,298 -11,467 -13,738 -8,238 -10,660 -14,519 -16,984
Change - -32.08% -1.5% -19.8% 40.03% -29.4% -36.2% -16.98%
Announcement Date 3/15/21 3/22/22 3/22/23 3/20/24 3/28/25 - - -
1HKD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 1,613 1,914 2,517 1,754 2,145 2,248 2,302 2,346
Change - 18.66% 31.47% -30.29% 22.26% 4.78% 2.42% 1.93%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 6,404 3,787 6,129 2,761 2,682 5,778 6,867 6,908
Change - -40.87% 61.85% -54.95% -2.87% 115.48% 18.83% 0.6%
Announcement Date 3/15/21 3/22/22 3/22/23 3/20/24 3/28/25 - - -
1HKD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 27.53% 27.49% 25.92% 25.21% 24.31% 24.67% 28.81% 25.56%
EBIT Margin (%) 24.28% 24.38% 22.53% 21.65% 19.69% 21.17% 24.68% 23.01%
EBT Margin (%) 25.62% 24.57% 24.51% 23.5% 19.23% 22.42% 27.31% 23.86%
Net margin (%) 20.69% 20.11% 19.69% 18.68% 14.92% 17.83% 21.24% 18.9%
FCF margin (%) 21.52% 11.04% 17.37% 8.08% 8.64% 18.63% 20.07% 19.61%
FCF / Net Income (%) 104.01% 54.87% 88.2% 43.26% 57.89% 104.49% 94.53% 103.77%

Profitability

        
ROA 18.3% 17.3% 15.96% 13.34% 9.55% 10.72% 12.5% 11.72%
ROE 25.3% 23.2% 21.73% 18.53% 13.22% 14.36% 16.27% 14.86%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 5.42% 5.58% 7.13% 5.13% 6.91% 7.25% 6.73% 6.66%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 19.69% 20.3% 27.51% 20.37% 28.42% 29.38% 23.36% 26.07%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 25.19% 50.55% 41.06% 63.55% 79.99% 38.9% 33.53% 33.97%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 0.6706 0.4769 0.7254 0.3804 0.4112 0.9185 0.6367 0.7512
Change - -28.87% 52.09% -47.56% 8.1% 123.39% -30.68% 17.99%
Dividend per Share 1 0.1275 0.18 0.21 0.28 0.26 0.2935 0.3549 0.3247
Change - 41.18% 16.67% 33.33% -7.14% 12.9% 20.91% -8.51%
Book Value Per Share 1 2.232 2.673 2.872 3.039 2.944 3.325 3.745 4.079
Change - 19.77% 7.46% 5.82% -3.14% 12.94% 12.64% 8.92%
EPS 1 0.515 0.5773 0.5831 0.5376 0.3946 0.4833 0.6369 0.5761
Change - 12.09% 1% -7.8% -26.6% 22.49% 31.78% -9.55%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 11,954,570 11,916,370 11,915,520 11,848,756 11,541,665 11,433,025 11,433,025 11,433,025
Announcement Date 3/15/21 3/22/22 3/22/23 3/20/24 3/28/25 - - -
1HKD
Estimates
2025 *2026 *
P/E ratio 20.9x 15.9x
PBR 3.04x 2.7x
EV / Sales 3.38x 2.95x
Yield 2.9% 3.51%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
26
Last Close Price
10.11HKD
Average target price
11.24HKD
Spread / Average Target
+11.18%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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