Fitch Ratings has affirmed Kazakhstan's Sovereign Wealth Fund Samruk-Kazyna JSC's (SK) Long-Term Foreign- and Local- Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'BBB' with Stable Outlook.

A full list of rating actions is provided below.

The affirmation reflects Fitch's unchanged view of a high probability of state support for SK, given its government-related entity (GRE) status and its role as the state's strategic policy arm in Kazakhstan (BBB/Stable/F2). This is reflected in a support score of 45 points out of a maximum 60.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Status, Ownership and Control: 'Very Strong'

SK manages a portfolio of strategically important national companies, as stipulated by national legislation. The state, as SK's sole shareholder, controls its strategic decisions, mandates key policies on debt, dividends and investments, and appoints its seven-member board of directors and chief executive officer. SK shares are not permitted to be sold, pledged or seized without the approval of the government. Fitch therefore believes that a SK default would result in its assets and liabilities being unconditionally transferred to the state, or a public entity designated by the state.

Fitch believes that SK's plan to privatise several subsidiaries in the medium term will be limited in scale and will not materially affect its status in Kazakhstan in the foreseeable future.

Support Track Record: 'Strong'

SK benefits from well-established national regulation that is generally supportive of its financial viability. As manager of key state-owned companies in Kazakhstan it receives a steady stream of dividends. In addition, the government provides support in the form of cheap funding: at end-2022 state-originated debt accounted for 76% of total debt at parent level, and were mostly represented by domestic bonds that were purchased by the National Fund of Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK). Occasionally SK also receives capital injections, both in the form of cash and property.

Additionally, in 4Q23 NFRK purchased SK's shares of JSC National Company KazMunayGas (KMG; BBB/Stable) for KZT500 billion. While further details of the transaction are not published, it underlines the close ties between SK and the state. Fitch views the transaction as credit-neutral for SK.

Socio-Political Implications of Default: 'Strong'

Companies under SK's management constitute the core of Kazakhstan's economic wealth. SK's assets accounted for an average 38% of national GDP in 2018-2022 and SK is a large employer, with 259,000 employees at group level (3% of the national workforce).

SK would be difficult to immediately substitute in a default, due to either the monopolistic nature of goods and services provided by its portfolio companies, or its strategically important development functions on behalf of the state. Fitch therefore views a failure of or disruptions to SK's operations could lead to long-term economic implications and hamper economic development.

Financial Implications of Default: 'Very Strong'

The government does not provide an explicit guarantee on SK's debt, but we view such debt as a moral obligation of the state and therefore as quasi-sovereign liabilities. SK is an important debt-market participant, with its leading portfolio companies being regular issuers on international markets and perceived as quasi-sovereign borrowers. As of end-2022, SK's total debt at group level amounted to KZT10.7 trillion (by nominal value and including leases), or about 10% of GDP.

Operating Performance

SK's net income increased to KZT951 billion in 2022 (2021: KZT219 billion). Its main revenue source is dividends from major subsidiaries and joint ventures, which increased almost 3x year-on year (2022: KZT758 billion, 2021: KZT255 billion). Largest dividend payers were KMG Kashagan B.V., KMG, JSC National Atomic Company Kazatomprom (BBB-/Stable) and National Mining Company Tau-Ken Samruk.

KMG Kashagan B.V. is a joint venture between SK and KMG, and in 2022 SK sold its shares to KMG's subsidiary, which resulted in income of KZT298 billion. This was partially offset by impairment of investments in other SK's subsidiaries (primarily Samruk-Kazyna Ondeu LLP), which resulted in a reported loss of KZT232 billion.

SK's operating revenue at group level increased to KZT14.8 trillion in 2022 from KZT11.7 trillion in 2021. Reported net income was KZT2.4 trillion in 2022, up from KZT1.9 trillion in 2021.

Derivation Summary

Our assessment of the key rating drivers under our GRE Criteria results in a support score of 45 points out of a maximum of 60, leading to SK's ratings being equalised with the sovereign's IDRs.

Short-Term Ratings

The 'F2' Short-Term IDR of SK represents the higher of two options for its 'BBB' Long-Term IDR. Under Fitch's GRE Rating Criteria, when an issuer's long-term ratings are equalised with a sponsor's (Kazakhstan), the short-term ratings are also equalised.

National Ratings

The 'AAA(kaz)' National Long-Term rating on SK represents the highest possible option for the 'BBB' Long-Term IDR, in accordance with Fitch's National Scale Rating Criteria.

Debt Ratings

SK's senior unsecured debt ratings are in line with its Long- and Short-Term IDRs.

Liquidity and Debt Structure

SK's 2022 debt amounted to KZT2.7 trillion and includes government-related debt (76%), which mostly comprised domestic bonds held by NFRK. The other large sources of debt are Eurobonds (8%), local market bonds (8%), other bonds held by subsidiaries and various loans. Exposure to floating interest rates and foreign-currency debt is moderate (2.4% and 10.8%, respectively).

Issuer Profile

SK is a national strategic holding company of assets contributing to the development of the Kazakh economy. SK has stakes in more than 60 companies in various sectors, including natural resources, railway, transport, energy, infrastructure and postal services.

Rating Sensitivities

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade

A downgrade of Kazakhstan's sovereign ratings

Weaker assessment of support leading to a score below 45 under our GRE Criteria

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade

An upgrade of Kazakhstan's sovereign ratings

ESG Considerations

Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for SK as its ratings and ESG profile are derived from its parent. ESG relevance scores and commentary for the parent entity - Kazakhstan - can be found here https://www.fitchratings.com/entity/kazakhstan-80442239

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