Projected Income Statement: Petrobras

Forecast Balance Sheet: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 328,268 265,778 224,510 227,799 304,800 313,195 310,424 305,503
Change - -19.04% -15.53% 1.46% 33.8% 2.75% -0.88% -1.59%
Announcement Date 2/25/21 2/24/22 3/2/23 3/8/24 2/26/25 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 29,974 34,134 49,656 62,297 85,442 93,789 93,784 97,285
Change - 13.88% 45.47% 25.46% 37.15% 9.77% -0% 3.73%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 118,132 168,992 205,754 159,925 136,180 83,324 64,154 71,975
Change - 43.05% 21.75% -22.27% -14.85% -38.81% -23.01% 12.19%
Announcement Date 2/25/21 2/24/22 3/2/23 3/8/24 2/26/25 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 47.02% 51.82% 53.1% 51.18% 50.19% 48.38% 48.48% 50.06%
EBIT Margin (%) 25.7% 37.89% 42.46% 38.21% 36.54% 31.28% 29.67% 31.24%
EBT Margin (%) -0.42% 33.48% 42.88% 34.56% 12.19% 32.4% 24.06% 25.2%
Net margin (%) 2.13% 23.56% 29.37% 24.3% 8.23% 22.11% 16.28% 17.87%
FCF margin (%) 40.64% 37.33% 32.09% 31.36% 25.8% 17.52% 13.69% 14.74%
FCF / Net Income (%) 1,911.91% 158.43% 109.25% 129.05% 313.25% 79.25% 84.05% 82.5%

Profitability

        
ROA 0.74% 10.88% 19.32% 12.29% 9.72% 7.45% 7.64% 8.11%
ROE 2.35% 30.66% 50.23% 33.54% 28.14% 27.23% 18.72% 19.07%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 2.4x 1.13x 0.66x 0.87x 1.15x 1.36x 1.37x 1.25x
Debt / Free cash flow 2.78x 1.57x 1.09x 1.42x 2.24x 3.76x 4.84x 4.24x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 10.31% 7.54% 7.74% 12.22% 16.18% 19.72% 20.01% 19.92%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 21.93% 14.55% 14.58% 23.87% 32.24% 40.76% 41.27% 39.8%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 25.37% 20.2% 24.13% 38.95% 62.74% 112.56% 146.19% 135.17%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 11.35 15.57 19.58 16.56 15.82 12.93 12.2 12.25
Change - 37.15% 25.74% -15.41% -4.5% -18.29% -5.59% 0.43%
Dividend per Share 1 0.7874 8.534 15.09 5.569 5.734 3.394 4.223 4.781
Change - 983.76% 76.82% -63.09% 2.96% -40.82% 24.43% 13.23%
Book Value Per Share 1 23.64 29.69 27.8 29.4 28.4 33.13 36.67 39.54
Change - 25.6% -6.39% 5.77% -3.41% 16.67% 10.68% 7.82%
EPS 1 0.54 8.18 14.44 9.57 2.84 8.566 6.045 6.635
Change - 1,414.81% 76.53% -33.73% -70.32% 201.63% -29.43% 9.76%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 13,044,201 13,044,201 13,044,201 13,015,466 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733
Announcement Date 2/25/21 2/24/22 3/2/23 3/8/24 2/26/25 - - -
1BRL
Estimates
2025 *2026 *
P/E ratio 3.7x 5.24x
PBR 0.96x 0.86x
EV / Sales 1.54x 1.56x
Yield 10.7% 13.3%
More valuation ratios * Estimated data

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
More Ratings
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
14
Last Close Price
31.70BRL
Average target price
39.91BRL
Spread / Average Target
+25.91%
Consensus

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise