After US President Donald Trump announced at the beginning of the week that strikes against Iran would be suspended, the Dax had surged by up to 3.6 percent from negative territory. Trump justified the postponement of the ultimatum to open the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz by citing progress in talks with Iran. "However, both Israeli and Iranian militaries continue to target critical energy infrastructure in their respective countries," Lipkow commented. According to analysts, the fundamental framework has not changed.
"REALITY ON THE GROUND UNCHANGED"
"The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed by Iran, parts of the region's energy infrastructure have been damaged, and the threat of Iranian retaliation persists," said Ricardo Evangelista, analyst at ActivTrades. "Against this backdrop, Brent prices are unlikely to fall sustainably below 100 dollars without tangible progress in negotiations." A barrel of North Sea Brent rose by as much as 4.4 percent to 104.35 dollars on Tuesday. The price of US light crude WTI climbed by up to 4.7 percent to 92.29 dollars. Following Trump's reversal the previous day, oil prices had temporarily plunged by more than ten percent.
Trump had spoken of talks with unnamed Iranian representatives that yielded "significant points of agreement." However, the government in Tehran rejected the claim that there had been any contact with Washington. "The reality on the ground remains unchanged," said Nikos Tzabouras, analyst at Tradu.com. "The Strait of Hormuz remains practically closed and supply disruptions continue, tightening the market."
Should the strait remain effectively closed until the end of April, the price of Brent could reach 150 dollars per barrel, according to a forecast by investment bank Macquarie. "The Iran conflict is experiencing a tentative de-escalation, but unresolved risks surrounding Hormuz remain," BCA Research stated.
SAP AND BAYER UNDER PRESSURE
Among individual stocks, Bayer was weighed down by the exit of activist investor Inclusive Capital. Shares of the Leverkusen-based agricultural and pharmaceutical group dropped by as much as 3.9 percent to 36.98 euros, making them one of the weakest performers in the German benchmark index. The fund led by activist investor Jeffrey Ubben placed its remaining 8.5 million Bayer shares overnight with other institutional shareholders at a price of 37.45 euros each, according to the lead bank. Inclusive Capital realized 318 million euros from the sale but is likely to have incurred a loss on its investment.
The investor had entered Bayer in early 2023 and helped drive the removal of CEO Werner Baumann. At that time, the 8.18 million shares purchased by the fund were valued at 407 million euros. Since then, Bayer's stock has lost approximately 25 percent of its value. One trader noted that the move could be a sign that Ubben believes the upside potential has been exhausted. Activist investors had provided momentum for Bayer. "And when one exits, it is correspondingly negative."
SAP shares fell by as much as five percent at one point. A downgrade and a drastic price target cut by JP Morgan pressured the Walldorf-based software group. Conversely, the prospect of a merger with US cosmetics group Estee Lauder sparked euphoria for Spanish rival Puig. Puig shares soared by nearly 17 percent at their peak after both companies confirmed discussions on Monday.
(Report by Stefanie Geiger, edited by Sabine Ehrhardt. For inquiries, please contact our editorial team at berlin.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com (for politics and economics) or frankfurt.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com (for companies and markets))
