FRANKFURT (DEUTSCHE BOERSE AG) - April 23, 2026. FRANKFURT (Goldberg & Goldberg). Hopes that the Strait of Hormuz might be reopened propelled the DAX to a gain of as much as 3.1 percent at the end of the week compared to our previous sentiment survey. Even though these hopes ultimately went unfulfilled and there have been no further negotiations between the U.S. and Iran since then, a point-to-point gain of 1.1 percent remained as of today. This may be partly because many market participants can live with the 'open-ended' ceasefire announced yesterday by U.S. President Donald Trump. Although this move was once again perceived in many quarters as a climbdown, it seems primarily important to equity market participants that the status quo has not deteriorated dramatically, for instance through escalating hostilities in the Iran war. At least, that is how some commentators have put it. According to human nature, one seems able to become more or less consciously accustomed to everything else.
Meanwhile, the optimism we had observed for several weeks among the institutional investors with a medium-term trading horizon surveyed by us has vanished all at once. Our Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index has plummeted by a drastic 30 points to a new level of -6 - the lowest level since January 14. In the process, the bull camp has shrunk by 16 percentage points.
Letting go for good reason
We suspect that this shift in sentiment is due not only to a new geopolitical assessment, but predominantly to the squaring of previously underwater positions. In a secondary move, the bear camp increased by 14 percentage points, while the group of neutral investors saw only a slight increase. In this light, the former institutional optimists could be described as having been 'stripped of hope'.
We also note a deterioration in sentiment among private investors, though nowhere near as pronounced as among their institutional counterparts. The Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index in this panel fell by 8 points to a new level of +14. Here, the pessimists recorded an increase of 6 percentage points, fed one-third by former bulls who performed a 180-degree turn, and two-thirds by previously neutral investors. Although those we survey via social media and other investors are moving in the same direction, optimism among the latter is significantly less pronounced. Indeed, the sentiment index in this subgroup stands at only +3.
New potential
The bottom line is that a new sentiment gap has opened up between private and institutional investors, though it is nowhere near as wide as in the previous week. Furthermore, the roles have reversed, as institutional investors are now more pessimistic than private investors. Just how pronounced this pessimism actually is can also be seen in the relative assessment over the past three months - it corresponds to a sentiment index of -26.
On balance, this represents good news for the DAX. With the newly opened bearish exposures, there will be buyers at lower levels in the event of potential DAX weakness as profits from short positions are realized. In this regard, we expect initial demand between 23,720 and 23,770 DAX points. On the other hand, the upside is now much more permeable than in previous weeks, as the number of bulls and the associated supply have significantly decreased.
However, a clear and sustainable rise in the stock market barometer requires fresh, long-term demand. Whether this can also be expected from abroad remains questionable.
by Joachim Goldberg
April 22, 2026, © Goldberg & Goldberg for Deutsche Börse
(Deutsche Börse AG is solely responsible for the content of this column. The articles do not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities or other assets.)
