In the crude oil market, prices rose to a three-week high, standing approximately 50 percent higher than before the start of the Iran conflict in late February. Brent North Sea crude rose by more than three percent to as much as 111.86 dollars per barrel. The price of US light crude (WTI) saw a similar surge, reaching up to 99.22 dollars per barrel. 'The longer the conflict persists and the blockade of the strait remains in place, the more severe the impact of this energy shock on the global economy is likely to be - creating room for further oil price increases,' commented Ricardo Evangelista, analyst at ActivTrades. For now, however, the upside potential is being capped by hopes that ongoing talks could lead to a normalization of shipping traffic in the region.
According to a US official, President Donald Trump is dissatisfied with Tehran's latest proposal to resolve the conflict. The proposal suggests postponing talks on the Iranian nuclear program until hostilities have ceased. This has led to a current deadlock: Iran is disrupting vital commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while the US maintains its blockade of Iranian ports.
CENTRAL BANKS MOVE INTO FOCUS
Focus shifted increasingly toward upcoming central bank meetings. The Bank of Japan led the way, and while it left its key interest rate unchanged as expected, it fueled speculation about a rate hike in June. Three of the nine Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members already voted in favor of a rate hike on Tuesday, reflecting the central bank's growing concern over inflationary pressures resulting from the Middle East conflict. Simultaneously, the BoJ significantly revised its inflation forecasts upward.
'They are signaling that their finger is on the trigger regarding the possibility of rate hikes - signals that could also be heard from the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve,' said Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst at Consorsbank. 'Central banks are likely to keep the option for rate hikes open in the event that the Strait of Hormuz remains impassable well beyond May.'
SUPREME COURT DIVIDED ON BAYER
On the corporate side, mixed signals from the US Supreme Court in the legal dispute over the weedkiller glyphosate weighed on Bayer. Shares of the pharmaceutical and agricultural group fell by as much as 6.5 percent. During a hearing, the US Supreme Court appeared divided on whether federal law preempts state-law claims. Bayer argues that because the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) does not require a cancer warning for the glyphosate-based weedkiller Roundup, corresponding state-level lawsuits should be barred.
A bleak outlook also caused disappointment at Qiagen. The shares lost 7.8 percent at one point, making them the weakest performer on the Dax. The diagnostics specialist lowered its 2026 guidance and now expects currency-adjusted sales growth of approximately one to two percent, down from the previous forecast of at least five percent. Growth has almost completely vanished, one trader commented.
In contrast, European oil and gas companies benefited from the renewed rise in crude oil prices. Shares of BP, Shell, Eni, Repsol, Gaztransport, and Equinor rose between 2.5 and approximately 3.5 percent.
(Report by Stefanie Geiger, edited by Ralf Banser. For inquiries, please contact our editorial office at berlin.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com (for politics and economics) or frankfurt.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com (for companies and markets))
