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| This week's gainers and losers |
Up: Stellantis -9.19%: The automaker reported results described as “mixed” by Oddo BHF. Performance in North America disappointed, with a margin of only 1.6%, and even negative after adjusting for exceptional tariff-related items. These results confirm that the group's turnaround "will take time." Brown-Forman -9.75%: The owner of Jack Daniel's announced that it is abandoning its proposed merger with France's Pernod Ricard. The deal could have provided some breathing room for an already battered stock, but the market reaction was also negative on the European side. Credo Technology -5.47%: the Cayman Islands-based company was hurt by insider share sales. Its chief technology officer first sold $5.17 million worth of shares, followed by a second transaction worth $4.9 million. |
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| Commodities |
Energy: Two weeks ago, Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Donald Trump declared victory. Since then, oil prices have only continued to rise, with Brent crude hitting a new high this week not seen since 2022, above $125 a barrel. The U.S. blockade has effectively been added to Iran's, and traffic remains paralyzed in the Strait of Hormuz. On the diplomatic front, the situation is also at an impasse. Both sides appear to believe that time is on their side and will eventually force the other to make concessions. The surprise announcement that the United Arab Emirates is withdrawing from OPEC did not ease tensions. Ultimately, the move should allow the UAE to break free from the cartel's quotas and increase production. Metals: Nickel stood out this week, reaching its highest level since late January, driven by projections from the International Nickel Study Group that point to the first annual supply deficit since 2021. This deficit stems from Indonesia's decision to reduce mining extraction quotas. Indonesia is the world's largest producer. Other industrial metals fell sharply amid concerns over the outlook for global trade, as the conflict in Iran continued. Zinc and aluminum were particularly hard hit. Precious metals also had a difficult week, with platinum and silver both falling by more than 5%. Agriculture: Sugar prices moved higher as rising oil prices increased competition between sugar and ethanol in the markets. Wheat also ended the week higher, supported by drought in the U.S. Plains and the surge in oil linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Export demand remains sluggish, however, as buyers wait for a possible easing of tensions with Iran, while Black Sea wheat is expected to dominate global trade. |
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| Macroeconomics |
Macro: The week was marked by a heavy news flow, driven on one side by decisions from major central banks around the world — Japan, the U.S., the eurozone and the U.K. — and on the other by earnings releases. Central bankers opted for the status quo while expressing concerns about a potential return of inflation due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. On the corporate side, it is worth remembering that the Magnificent Seven account for roughly a quarter of the S&P 500’s market value. In other words, their earnings reports are under particularly close scrutiny. For now, the main questions concern capital expenditures, or more precisely their expected profitability. The price action of their respective stocks will be a good indicator of investor perception. In the meantime, bond yields and oil prices are hovering near their highs for the year, while the dollar is struggling to find a clear direction. Crypto: April is ending on a weak note for bitcoin (BTC). After four consecutive weeks of gains, the crypto market leader is down 3.3% since Monday and is trading at $76,000. Its monthly performance remains significant, however, with BTC up 11.4%, its best month in a year. A similar trend was seen in spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded nearly $2 billion in net inflows in April, bringing total assets under management close to $100 billion, or 6.5% of all bitcoins in circulation. In April, bitcoin traded much like the Nasdaq 100. The correlation coefficient between BTC and the tech index reached 0.8 over the month, with 1 representing a perfect positive correlation and -1 a perfect negative correlation. In other words, bitcoin is being placed in the same basket as Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Meta and the like. Among other cryptocurrencies, ether (ETH) rose 7.5% in April to $2,260, Solana (SOL) was flat at $83, and XRP gained 2% to $1.37. |
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| Things to read this week | ||||||
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*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday. The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends. |
