The chart below shows the evolution of the US dollar against the Russian ruble since 2021.

Devises

Source: Bloomberg

As you can see, the invasion of Ukraine did indeed result in a sharp depreciation of the Russian currency, but this was quickly followed by a return of the pendulum. Since 2022, the pair had been evolving within an ascending channel, whose exit from the bottom marks a change in momentum. However, it is too early to speak of a trend reversal. To do so, the 86.64 support level would have to be breached, which would pave the way for a fall towards the 68.67 level. We can keep an eye on the 21-week moving average, currently resisting around 93.30, to anticipate a breakout.

Elsewhere in the world, the Japanese yen continues to be under pressure against the other major G10 currencies (especially GBP, CHF, CAD, NZD, AUD).

In Europe, we mentioned last week that the EURO and GBP were fighting the same battle against the dollar. Some readers then asked us which of these two currencies should be favored. The answer is far from clear-cut, given that EURGBP has been trading within a range of 0.8300/0.9300-9400 since 2017. In the shorter term, it looks as though the euro will continue to underperform, heading for this lower boundary.