Furthermore, Oddo BHF notes that 'given the rise in oil prices, Vallourec highlights that a recovery in U.S. activity is already perceptible among some of its clients.

In addition, seamless tube import levels are contracting (nearly 12% of the market in the first quarter of 2026 vs. approximately 15% over the last 2 years), allowing for the anticipation of a continued price rebound in the region starting in the third quarter of 2026. 'It is the best possible cocktail: the conjunction of a volume effect and a price effect,' Oddo BHF points out.

The broker published its research note this Thursday, following yesterday's release of the first-quarter 2026 results by the seamless tube manufacturer.

During this period, EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rose by 4 million dollars, landing at the top of its guidance range. It reached 220 million dollars (approximately 187 million euros), representing a 1.85% increase compared to the first quarter of 2025. The EBITDA margin improved to 22.6%, an increase of approximately 200 basis points compared to the previous quarter.

Vallourec 'converted more than 60% of its EBITDA into cash, which is 10 percentage points higher than in the first quarter of 2025.

Regarding its outlook, the metallurgical company indicates that 'group EBITDA in the second quarter of 2026 is expected to decline and should range between 175 and 205 MUSD' (between 150 and 175 MEUR), compared to this first quarter. On this point, Oddo BHF estimates that 'the consensus was expecting EBITDA for the coming quarter at the top of the range (205 MUSD)'. However, given a very strong first-quarter publication, according to the analyst (EBITDA was 6% above expectations), he believes that the annual consensus should not undergo significant adjustments.