US equities ended March with a strong rebound, sending the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 up 3.4%. The usually more restrained S&P 500 and Dow Jones still posted gains of 2.9% and 2.5% respectively. Europe, which had already closed before the positive headlines broke, nonetheless finished in positive territory. Before returning to yesterday's market action, let us take a brief look at the month and the quarter.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 8% in March and is down 1.53% since 1 January. In the United States, the S&P 500 is down 5.1% over the month and 4.6% since the start of the year. The Nasdaq 100 is down 4.9% over one month and 6% year to date. Emerging markets, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets index, are down 13.3% over one month and 0.5% since the start of the year. Brent crude is up 41.6% over one month and 70% year to date. Gold is down 14.5% over one month and up 8.7% since the start of the year.

So what happened yesterday to send Wall Street sharply higher? Comments from Washington and Tehran appeared to point in the same direction. Unusually, it was Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian who moved first. Through the country's official news agency, he signalled his willingness to end the war, provided guarantees are put in place to prevent any repeat of the attacks. Later, Donald Trump also suggested that he wanted the war to end within two to three weeks, while warning that the United States could decide unilaterally to halt the fighting, whether or not a deal is reached. Those two apparently constructive signals sparked a rally in high-beta stocks, led by technology names and the worst hit shares of recent weeks. It was the usual snapback effect.

Over the past few days, I have repeatedly referred to the White House's need for a face-saving exit. That has already taken two forms. The first is Donald Trump attempting to regain control of the narrative, after losing it in the oil shock, by suggesting that US military objectives have more or less been achieved and that this is what really matters. The president notably said that Iran's nuclear programme had been wiped out and that it would take 15 to 20 years to recover the lost ground. Whether that is true or not is almost beside the point: the message matters more than the substance. The second, more hard-edged version of this face-saving exit is: once again, the United States has done the job, and it is now up to the rest of the world to ensure that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. More bluntly: now it is your problem. It is cynical, but probably effective. Europe, Asia and the Gulf states are far more dependent than the United States on Middle Eastern oil and gas. The United Arab Emirates have reportedly already begun lobbying allies across several continents to help secure the strait. The message should also play well domestically in the United States: America has acted, the boys will not get bogged down in Iran, and it is for others to deal with the aftermath. Donald Trump is due to address the nation on Iran this evening at 9.00pm New York time.

Market sentiment has therefore improved markedly, setting off the usual rebound patterns. But not all doubts have disappeared, far from it:

  • A halt to US bombing alone will not immediately ease tensions,
  • The region remains a tinderbox,
  • The two-week deadline is one of Donald Trump's well-worn devices and is not always followed by action,
  • Some assets reacted cautiously to the announcements: while the VIX volatility index fell 6%, oil is still trading at elevated levels,
  • The idea that "oil is now your problem" is not entirely true: the inflationary fallout also affects the United States and complicates the Fed's monetary path.

There will be plenty of macroeconomic data to parse throughout the day. On the corporate side, Nike rattled investors yesterday by issuing downbeat guidance alongside its latest quarterly results. The shares were down 9% in after-hours trading.

In Asia-Pacific, markets with heavy exposure to technology stocks are leading the way this morning: up 4.9% in Japan, 9.0% in South Korea, 4.4% in Taiwan and 2.3% in Hong Kong. Australia and India are both up more than 2%. Europe is set to open sharply higher.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: US$1.33
  • Gold: US$4,700.41
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): US$103.84
  • United States 10 years: 4.28%
  • BITCOIN: US$68,409

In corporate news:

  • Princes Group swung to a £55.4 million annual profit in 2025, with revenue rising to £1.87 billion, but warned of price hikes due to rising costs.
  • Artisan Partners supports Unilever’s decision to merge its food and beverage business with McCormick.
  • The CEO of UBS, Sergio Ermotti, has stated that he will remain at the helm of the bank until at least April 2027, whilst leaving the door open to extending his tenure beyond that date.
  • A placement of SoftwareOne shares was completed at CHF 6.55, according to market sources.
  • Mercedes is investing USD 4 billion in its Alabama plant (United States).
  • The British betting group Evoke has announced the closure of several outlets following tax increases in the country.
  • OCI is finalising the sale of its ammonia business to Agrofert for €290 million.
  • Mutares is selling the aluminium roofing supplier Kalzip.
  • Theon International is opening a production facility in Belgium.
  • Nike plunges 9% in after-hours trading following its quarterly results.
  • Microsoft is in talks with Chevron and Engine No. 1 over a $7bn power plant in Texas, according to Bloomberg.
  • Eli Lilly is set to acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals for up to $7.8bn.
  • Oracle is cutting thousands of jobs to fund its shift towards AI.
  • AT&T has committed to investing up to $2bn to modernise its emergency cellular network, according to the WSJ.
  • Snap jumped 14% yesterday after Irenic Capital Management took a stake in the company.OpenAI raises $122bn and moves closer to an IPO.

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Trustpilot Group Plc: RBC Capital maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 290 to GBX 305.
  • The Berkeley Group Holdings Plc: RBC Capital upgrades to sector perform from underperform with a target price of GBX 3900.
  • Bellway P.l.c.: RBC Capital maintains its sector perform recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 3150 to GBX 2050.
  • Mondi Plc: Barclays maintains its underweight recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 7.60 to GBP 7.55.
  • Shell Plc: TD Cowen maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 3064 to GBX 4237.
  • 3I Group Plc: UBS maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 4000 to GBX 3600.
  • Future Plc: Barclays downgrades to equalweight from overweight and reduces the target price from GBP 6.40 to GBP 2.85.
  • Unilever Plc: HSBC maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 51 to GBP 48.
  • Greatland Gold: Citi upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from AUD 15.30 to AUD 16.
  • Kingfisher Plc: UBS maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 315 to GBX 295.