A few weeks ago, Céline Dion announced her long-awaited return to the stage. In the markets, however, it is not Céline that has made a comeback, but TINA. The acronym stands for There Is No Alternative, to equities in general and to Wall Street in particular. From experience, whenever this acronym is wheeled out again, it usually means US markets are notching up one record after another and nobody is entirely sure how to explain the rally any more, though that is still better than falling back on the old bargain-hunting story.

As we discussed at length last week, this rally reflects a market that has clearly moved on from the war in Iran and is betting on gradual normalisation on all fronts. Last week even ended on a high note, with Iran announcing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. European indices closed Friday's session up 2%. On Wall Street, the main indices posted gains of more than 1%. The S&P 500 therefore hit yet another record. And the Nasdaq is continuing its winning streak. We are now up to 13 consecutive sessions of gains, the longest such run since 1992. Frankly, we would quite like the Nasdaq to fall, if only so that we can stop counting the bars on a chart every morning.

But the weekend was markedly less upbeat. Donald Trump first announced that the US blockade would remain in place. Iran viewed this as a breach of the ceasefire and announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. Then on Sunday, Donald Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire through attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. In the same message, the US president announced a second round of negotiations in Islamabad this Monday. That information was denied by the Iranians a few hours later. In short, it all feels like a playground squabble, except that the subject under discussion is nuclear weapons. According to Axios, the Iranians are wary of these negotiations, suspecting another Donald Trump feint ahead of a military offensive.

Geopolitics is therefore likely to continue dominating the agenda this week, especially as the ceasefire expires tomorrow evening and Donald Trump has accustomed us to last-minute reversals. On the corporate side, the earnings season is gathering pace. In the United States, Tesla, IBM, GE Aerospace, Boeing and Philip Morris are due this week. In Europe, SAP, Thales, L'Oréal, EssilorLuxottica, Roche and Nestlé will also be in focus.

The other event to watch will be Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing, scheduled for tomorrow. He is the man chosen by Donald Trump to succeed Jerome Powell at the head of the Fed. And as we pointed out last week, it will not be plain sailing. One Republican senator has even threatened to block Warsh's nomination unless the legal proceedings against Powell, steered by the White House, are dropped. In such a scenario, which remains hypothetical, Powell could end up serving as interim head of the institution, which would probably send Donald Trump over the edge. That will be the Fed's only item of note this week, as the blackout period began over the weekend, the enforced silence imposed on Fed officials ahead of a policy meeting. The next meeting will take place on 28 and 29 April.

The key developments not to miss at the start of the week:

  • More than 20 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, but the sharp escalation in tensions has since caused transit volumes to fall back.
  • China left its key interest rates unchanged for the 11th consecutive month in April.
  • North Korea fired several ballistic missiles over the weekend.
  • The US Department of Justice reportedly refused to help the French authorities in their investigation into Elon Musk's X platform, according to the Wall Street Journal.
  • The White House and Anthropic's chief executive are now reportedly considering working together in response to concerns surrounding the Mythos model.

On the macroeconomic calendar, the week will be light in the United States, with only March retail sales due on Tuesday. Elsewhere, UK inflation on Wednesday and Japanese inflation on Friday will frame the flash April PMI readings for the major economies on Thursday.

In Asia-Pacific, markets are still heading higher at the start of the week. Technology-heavy indices, Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's KOSPI, Taiwan's TAIEX and Hong Kong's Hang Seng, are all up by around 1%, while gains are more modest in Australia and India. In Europe, the open is expected lower, while US futures have started the week sharply in the red, although everything could turn around very quickly depending on developments in the Middle East.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates in China; the annual PPI in Germany; the year-to-date FDI in China; in Canada, the core inflation rate year-on-year, the monthly and yearly inflation rates, and the BoC Business Outlook Survey; finally, ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech in the Euro Area. See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: US$1.35
  • Gold: US$4,782.39
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): US$95.32
  • United States 10 years: 4.27%
  • BITCOIN: US$74,334.3

In corporate news:

  • 4DMedical signed a contract with GlaxoSmithKline for lung imaging analytics and received UK certification for clinical use of its CTVQ technology.
  • Rightmove reported a 0.8% increase in average house prices in Great Britain in April, driven by high-priced homes despite higher mortgage rates.
  • Moody's maintained a negative outlook on Close Brothers Group due to weak profitability and strategic risks, despite its strong liquidity profile.
  • UniCredit today outlines its value creation strategy for Commerzbank.
  • The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund supports the re-election of the chairman of BP Plc.
  • Saipem signs a new €700 million contract with Eni for a biorefinery in Priolo.
  • UCB is set to acquire Neurona Therapeutics for up to $1.15 billion.
  • Siemens AG has won a major supply contract for Vulcan Energy’s Lionheart project.
  • Wacker Chemie expects higher-than-expected EBITDA for Q1 2026 thanks to front-loading effects.
  • TA Associates is considering a £600 million bid for the British company Advanced Medical Solutions, according to Sky News.
  • TUI is resuming its canceled cruises after its ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Evonik is extending its CEO’s term and appointing a new CFO.
  • Pharol is withdrawing its proposed share consolidation.
  • The U.S. building materials distributor QXO is set to acquire its counterpart TopBuild for $17 billion (USD 505 per share).
  • Google is in talks with Marvell to design new AI chips dedicated to inference, according to The Information.
  • Spirit Airlines is seeking government aid amid soaring oil prices, according to Air Current.
  • Meta plans a first round of layoffs affecting 8,000 employees (10% of its workforce) on May 20.
  • Tesla is rolling out its Robotaxi in Dallas and Houston.
  • Eli Lilly is in advanced negotiations to acquire Kelonia Therapeutics for more than $2 billion.
  • Philip Morris International announces that the FDA has renewed the marketing authorization for IQOS as a modified-risk tobacco product.
  • Cerebras Systems, a rival of Nvidia, files for an initial public offering.

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Oxford Nanopore Technologies Plc: Canaccord Genuity maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 250 to GBX 200.
  • Easyjet Plc: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 5.50 to GBP 5.40.
  • Standard Life Plc: UBS maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 810 to GBX 870.
  • Genuit Group Plc: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 394 to GBX 388.
  • Howden Joinery Group Plc: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 945 to GBX 919.
  • Ibstock Plc: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 133 to GBX 127.
  • Travis Perkins Plc: Jefferies maintains its underperform recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 507 to GBX 464.
  • Iberdrola, S.a.: JB Capital Markets S.V., S.A. maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from EUR 20.40 to EUR 21.80.
  • Heineken N.v.: Bernstein maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from EUR 124 to EUR 120.
  • Davide Campari-Milano N.v.: Bernstein maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from EUR 10.40 to EUR 10.50.
  • Bayer Ag: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from EUR 54 to EUR 55.
  • Thule Group Ab: ABG Sundal Collier maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from SEK 300 to SEK 285.