In the latest twist regarding US operations in Iran, President Trump is reportedly prepared to halt military action even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to the Wall Street Journal.
For the past month, the American president has suggested that the Iranian conflict is a matter of weeks, repeatedly describing the military operation as an "excursion." "The United States of America is engaged in serious discussions with A NEW, MORE REASONABLE REGIME to end our military operations in Iran," he posted Monday on Truth Social.
The White House is well aware that expanding the conflict will only exacerbate the economic fallout for Americans. Gasoline prices have now surged past $4 for the first time since 2022, up from less than $3 just a month ago.
Politically, this is a significant liability as the midterm elections approach. In 2024, Donald Trump won the election by capitalizing on voter dissatisfaction with the Democrats' economic management, spending the campaign denouncing "Biden inflation".
He now appears to be seeking a way out. However, he is not the only stakeholder involved. The Iranians seek to drive up the cost of this conflict to deter the US and its allies from any future strikes. Meanwhile, the Israelis intend to press their advantage to the fullest to trigger the collapse of the Iranian regime.
And Israel is no longer the only US ally seeking to maximize the weakening of Iran. After years of trying to preserve regional stability, the Gulf States are now urging Donald Trump to continue the strikes.
An about turn
These nations spent weeks discouraging Donald Trump from launching an operation against Iran, knowing they would be the primary targets of Iranian retaliation. The American president ignored their reservations, fueling frustration among allied countries that have invested heavily in their relations with the US.
For years, the Gulf countries have done everything to maintain regional stability, which is essential for their economic development. Riyadh had even restored diplomatic ties with Tehran in 2023. Last year, the Saudi Defense Minister (who is also the Crown Prince's brother) met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Since the start of the conflict, they have maintained a defensive posture, refraining from responding to Iranian attacks to avoid escalation. But as missile and drone strikes persist, this position is becoming increasingly untenable.
This morning, AP reported that officials from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain indicated that they do not wish to see the military operation end without significant changes within the Iranian leadership or a radical shift in Iran's behavior.
According to AP, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the strongest proponents of increased military pressure. On Friday, the Financial Times reported that the Emirates are attempting to build a military coalition aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is reportedly close to entering the conflict, according to the Wall Street Journal. The Crown Prince seeks to re-establish a form of deterrence against Iran. More broadly, the necessity of neutralizing the Iranian threat appears to have taken hold across the Gulf.
Under this logic, a ceasefire now would leave the Gulf States vulnerable. The Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control. To end the conflict, Tehran would likely demand recognition of its sovereignty over the strait. On Monday, the Iranian Parliament's security commission even approved a plan to impose tolls on vessels crossing the strait, according to a commission member cited by state television.
Despite the assassination of numerous top officials, the Iranian regime remains in place, and the Revolutionary Guard are more firmly in control than ever.
