I searched in vain for a link between 29 April and Powell, hoping to find something amusing to say this morning, but came up empty. Other than the fact that Andre Agassi turns 56 today: a once-hairy tennis player who later went bald and recently started selling frying pans. Powell's favourite sport is not tennis. It is probably boxing: he is both Fed chairman and Donald Trump's preferred punchbag.

Any self-respecting media organisation keeps its obituary files up to date, ready to be pulled out at speed when a public figure shuffles off. In finance, I imagine the obits for Warren Buffett, George Soros and Carl Icahn are guarded particularly closely. In short, the time has come to write Jerome Powell's, even if he will remain in office for a few more days in May before being replaced by Kevin Warsh. At MarketScreener, his obituary was supplied by a certain Donald T., making his first contribution to us. Here is what he sent in: “Jerome Powell is leaving us as he lived: too late. A weak man, frankly, TOTALLY USELESS and behind the curve on everything. Everybody knows it. He was running the Fed, a HUGE job, and what did he do with it? Mistakes, mistakes and more mistakes. Interest rates, a DISASTER. Inflation? Out of control for years. Covid, the war in Iran, purchasing power, Bad Bunny at the Superbowl? All HIS FAULT. The great President Donald Trump had left him a perfect economy, the best in history, and he managed to ruin it. He listened to nobody and especially not to Donald Trump, which is a serious mistake. The president appointed the guy, and he was supposed to listen to him. Got that, Kevin?”

At his final meeting as head of the world's most powerful central bank, Powell is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. The inflationary impact of the war in Iran has strengthened the Fed's wait-and-see stance. At the press conference, the soon-to-be former chairman is likely to emphasise the institution's independence. He will also be asked about his future as a governor, since the end of his chairmanship does not necessarily mean he will leave the board. From the market's perspective, today's monetary policy decision is not a turning point: investors understand that inflation rules out immediate rate cuts, and they are willing to live with that as long as the US economy shows no signs of weakness.

Away from the Fed meeting, with the rate decision due at 7pm BST and the press conference from 7:30pm, the day will be dominated by an avalanche of corporate earnings in three waves. First in Europe before the open, with a host of heavyweight names reporting. Then in the United States before Wall Street opens, between 11:00 and 2pm BST, for the more traditional parts of the economy. Finally, after the US close, come the tech stocks, including the four giants mentioned above. By the end of the day, investors should have a clearer picture of the upside and downside of AI, as well as the oil shock.

Yesterday, the AI trade took a knock after the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI is currently falling short of its user and revenue targets. The revelation matters because the sector's frenzy rests on the belief that huge sums must be poured into the infrastructure underpinning AI companies, even if those companies burn through mountains of cash for years, because they are tomorrow's technology oligopolies. If OpenAI and its peers fail to hit the targets on which they persuaded their backers to fund them, the economics look rather different, and confidence starts to fray. That said, the tailwind behind AI remains powerful, so there is no guarantee that this scoop will survive the market's appetite for risk.

On the geopolitical front, Donald Trump said Iran appeared close to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He is then said to have told advisers to prepare for a prolonged blockade of the strait. I have no idea what to make of the clash between those two pieces of information. In any case, oil remains elevated, with Brent for June delivery at $111 a barrel. The announcement that the United Arab Emirates is leaving OPEC landed like a bombshell for the cartel yesterday, but did not cause major turbulence in crude prices.

In Asia-Pacific, the Japanese market is closed for the start of the spring Golden Week holiday. Hong Kong and India are up more than 1%, but the picture is more mixed elsewhere. South Korea is up 0.8%, while Australia and Taiwan are down by 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. European futures are uncertain. National indices will be heavily influenced by results from large-cap companies.

Today's economic highlights:

Today's agenda includes: the annual and monthly inflation rates along with the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI in Australia; housing starts in Japan; preliminary inflation rates in Spain; consumer and business confidence in Italy; economic sentiment in the Euro Area; consumer and business confidence in Spain; in the United States, the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, building permits, housing starts, durable goods orders, goods trade balance, wholesale and retail inventories, as well as the Fed's interest rate decision and press conference; in Canada, the BoC's interest rate decision, monetary policy report, and press conference; EIA crude oil and gasoline stocks in the United States. See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: US$1.35
  • Gold: US$4,593.49
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): US$104.63
  • United States 10 years: 4.35%
  • BITCOIN: US$77,224.9

In corporate news:

  • Prudential reported a 10% year-over-year increase in Q1 new business profit to $686 million, driven by broad-based growth across its markets.
  • Travis Perkins reported a 1.7% decline in Q1 like-for-like revenue, driven by weak Merchanting volumes and challenges in the Benelux region.
  • UBS beats profit expectations thanks to market volatility.
  • Mercedes-Benz reports a fall in profit and revenue in Q1.
  • Sandoz posts higher net sales in Q1 and confirms its outlook for 2026.
  • Adidas reports better-than-expected operating profit in the first quarter.
  • Prudential reports a 10% increase in profit from new business in Q1.
  • Norsk Hydro beats operating profit forecasts in the first quarter.
  • Puig confirms strong momentum in Q1.
  • Kone is reportedly set to acquire its rival TK Elevator for €29 billion, according to Bloomberg.
  • CVC is considering a €9 billion bid for Italian payments specialist Nexi, according to the FT.
  • Relx has reached an agreement to acquire French legal tech firm Doctrine.
  • Eni has appointed JPMorgan to advise on the potential sale of a steam cracker.
  • Wizz Air is the most shorted stock on the UK market, with over 14% of shares shorted, according to Zonebourse data.
  • Solaria is launching an accelerated placement of up to 10% of its share capital.
  • ISS backs the management of DocMorris.
  • Today’s key earnings reports: AstraZeneca, Banco Santander, Iberdrola, GSK, Lloyds Banking Group, DSV, Deutsche Bank, Mercedes-Benz Group, Garmin, Porsche, Universal Music Group, Haleon, Aena, Prysmian…

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Wpp Group: BNP Paribas maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 16.60 to USD 18.30.
  • Helios Towers Plc: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 230 to GBX 250.
  • Anglo American Plc: JP Morgan maintains its underweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 27.70 to GBP 27.80.
  • Harworth Group Plc: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 190 to GBX 186.
  • Safestore Holdings Plc: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 875 to GBX 828.
  • Target Healthcare Reit Plc: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 102 to GBX 101.
  • Tritax Big Box Reit Plc: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 212 to GBX 200.
  • Unite Group Plc: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 512 to GBX 481.
  • Hammerson Plc: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 340 to GBX 334.
  • The British Land Company Plc: Jefferies maintains its underperform recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 310 to GBX 305.
  • Derwent London Plc: Jefferies maintains its underperform recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 1550 to GBX 1492.
  • Segro Plc: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 915 to GBX 855.
  • Anglo American Plc: UBS maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from ZAR 87,500 to ZAR 95,000.
  • Barclays Plc: UBS maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 580 to GBX 570.