Valneva in the green despite guidance cut and restructuring
After opening sharply lower, Valneva shares recovered (+1.38% to 2.565 euros). This comes despite the group reporting quarterly results that missed estimates and lowering several of its full-year financial targets.
During the first three months of the year, the vaccine specialist generated revenue of 30.9 million euros, a 37.2% decline. This heavy drop is primarily explained by the discontinuation of third-party product distribution, shifts in the delivery schedule to the U.S. Department of Defense, a change of distributor in Germany, and the recording of one-off sales of two products due to outbreaks in the first quarter of 2025, which did not recur in 2026.
Adjusted EBITDA, meanwhile, fell from -0.6 million to -18.2 million euros.
Concurrently, the net loss widened significantly from 9.2 million to 32.1 million euros, driven by weaker sales during the first three months of the 2026 fiscal year.
According to Stifel, these results missed expectations at both the top-line and EBITDA levels.
Guidance and analyst views
Regarding its targets, Valneva is now aiming for product sales between 135 million and 150 million euros for the full year, compared to the previous range of 145 million to 160 million euros. Total revenue is now expected to land between 145 million and 160 million euros, down from the earlier forecast of 155 million to 170 million euros. Furthermore, the company presented a new restructuring plan for its operations, which will involve a 10% to 15% reduction in its global workforce and is expected to lead to a significant reduction of approximately 25% to 35% in operating expenses by 2026.
In light of these figures, Stifel decided to lower its price target from 8.50 to 7.50 euros while maintaining a 'buy' rating. Analysts remain confident in the U.S. health authorities' approval of VLA15 (a Lyme disease vaccine candidate), a catalyst they believe is not yet priced in.
At Portzamparc, the downward revision of targets is attributed to unfavorable trends in travel vaccines linked to the geopolitical context. Analysts are forecasting 136 million euros in product sales this year, at the lower end of the company's guidance range. They also believe the announced restructuring plan is necessary and confirms that Valneva 'absolutely needs a major commercial catalyst'. The price target is also lowered from 5.60 to 4.80 euros, with a 'buy' recommendation.
Valneva is a specialty vaccine company that develops, manufactures, and commercializes prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases addressing unmet medical needs. Valneva takes a highly specialized and targeted approach, applying its deep expertise across multiple vaccine modalities, focused on providing either first-, best- or only-in-class vaccine solutions.
Valneva has a strong track record, having advanced multiple vaccines from early R&D to approvals, and currently markets three proprietary travel vaccines.
Revenues from its growing commercial business help fuel the continued advancement of its vaccine pipeline. This includes the only Lyme disease vaccine candidate in advanced clinical development, which is partnered with Pfizer, the world's most clinically advanced Shigella vaccine candidate, as well as vaccine candidates against other global public health threats.
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