Jan 15 (Reuters) - Global growth will likely slow this
year, but a dovish tilt in the Federal Reserve's stance has
raised hopes for the U.S. economy and brightened the outlook for
riskier assets, according to big banks.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England sticking
to their higher-for-longer rates stance, however, has blurred
expectations for Europe.
Following are forecasts from some major banks and peers on
economic growth, inflation, Fed policy and how they expect
certain asset classes to perform.
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024
GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA
AREA
Goldman 2.6% 2.3% 4.8% 0.9% 0.5% 6.3%
Sachs
Morgan 2.8% 1.9% 4.2% 0.5% -0.1% 6.4%
Stanley
UBS Global 2.6% 1.1% 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 6.2%
Wealth
Management
Barclays 2.6% 1.2% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% 6.2%
2.2% 1.6% 4.9% 0.4% 0.2% 5.7%
J.P.Morgan
BofA 2.8% 1.4% 4.8% 0.5% 0.1% 5.7%
Global
Research
2.4% 0.6% 4.7% 0.2% 0.3% 6.0%
Deutsche
Bank
Citigroup 1.9% 1.1% 4.6% -0.2% -0.3% 5.7%
HSBC 0.5%
2.4% 1.7% 4.9% 0.6% 6.0%
----
U.S. inflation and Fed forecasts:
The latest data showed that in the 12 months through
December, U.S. consumer prices edged 3.4% higher after
increasing 3.1% in November, tempering expectations of an
interest rate cut in March. The pace of price rises, however,
has slowed from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. The Fed targets an
inflation rate of 2%.
The U.S. central bank's policy rate currently stands in the
5.25%-5.50% range after 525 basis points of hike since March
2022. Rate cuts are seen coming as early as March.
U.S. inflation (annual Federal funds
Y/Y for 2024) target rate (Dec
'24)
Headline CPI Core PCE
Goldman Sachs 2.40% 2.50% 4%-4.25%
Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70% 4.375%
UBS Global 4.50%-4.75%
Wealth
Management
Wells Fargo 2.80% 2.60% 4.50%-4.75%
Investment
Institute
Barclays 2.70% 4.5%-4.75%
J.P.Morgan 2.50% 2.50% 4%-4.25%
BofA Global 2.80% 4.25%-4.50%
Research
Deutsche Bank 2.10% 3.63%
Citigroup 2.60% 4.50%
HSBC 3.10% 4.50%-4.75%
-----
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/C
target yield NY
target
Goldman Sachs 5,100 4.55% 1.10 150.00 7.15
Morgan Stanley 4,500 1 140 7.5
UBS Global 4,700 3.50% 1.12 140 7.00
Wealth
Management
Wells Fargo 4,800-5, 4.25%-4.75 1.08-1.1 136-140
Investment 000 % 2
Institute
Barclays 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20
J.P.Morgan 4,200 3.75% 1.13 146 7.15
BofA Global 4.25% 1.15 142 6.90
Research 5,000
Deutsche Bank 4.10% 1.10 135
5,100
Societe 3.75% 1.15
Generale 4,750
Citigroup 4.30% 1.02 135 7.25
5,100
HSBC 3.00% 1.05 136 7.10
5,000
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by
Sriraj Kalluvila and Paul Simao)
What to expect in 2024: Fed pivot, cooling inflation, easing growth
January 15, 2024 at 10:55 am EST
Share
Share
