FRANKFURT (DEUTSCHE BÖRSE AG) - Active investors are increasingly betting on the DAX's see-saw movement from one news headline to the next. In Goldberg's view, this is placing additional strain on the market.
April 2, 2026. FRANKFURT (Goldberg & Goldberg). A few days after the start of the war in Iran, a rough price pattern began to emerge for the first time, and it has been observed repeatedly since then: at the latest one day after our sentiment survey, the DAX heads more or less significantly lower into the weekend. And at the beginning of the following week, a sometimes substantial recovery ensues.
This was also the case this week, when things looked dismal once again for equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic by Friday evening. But with the new week, everything changed again, and bolstered hopes for a swift end to the war - US President Donald Trump apparently intends to withdraw from the Middle East within a few weeks - gave stock prices a boost.
In numerical terms, the DAX had weakened by as much as 3.4 percent since our last sentiment survey, but ventured into positive territory this morning for the first time in a week, leaving a gain of 0.7 percent as of the reporting date.
Pessimists retreat
Sentiment among the institutional investors we surveyed with a medium-term trading horizon also followed the previous week's pattern. Our Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index rose by 12 points compared to last Wednesday to a new level of +31. The bear camp, in particular, was reduced by a significant 9 percentage points. Two-thirds of those willing to switch closed out their positions and joined the neutral camp. Only one-third of the former bears moved directly to the bull side (presumably with profits), turning their exposure 180 degrees. Consequently, the bull camp increased by only 3 percentage points.
A similar development occurred among private investors, albeit to a lesser extent. The Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index in this panel also rose, but only by 5 points to a new level of +17. The bear camp shrank less significantly (compared to institutional investors) by 3 percentage points, with those switching being distributed almost equally (slightly in favor of the optimists) between the other two groups. Looking at the two subgroups - those investors we survey via social media and other private investors - there is no difference in the final tally: the respective sentiment indices each improved in lockstep by 5 points.
One wrong word might suffice
Nevertheless, today's survey reveals a widening sentiment gap between private investors and institutional investors. The latter are significantly more positive. This is not, however, because the number of optimists has risen sharply. Rather, the bears held the reins of action. The DAX's setback since our last survey was apparently used for short-covering, with the bear share among institutional investors now at its lowest level of the year.
At the same time, the downside for the DAX is once again poorly supported, especially since demand potential has thinned out compared to the previous week. However, the real problem is posed by the optimists, a large proportion of whom still hold positions whose entry prices are likely to be significantly above current levels - the cheapest of these are probably at 23,600/650 DAX points, which is why we expect initial supply in this area. Furthermore, should today's optimists come to the conviction that hopes for an improvement in the Middle East situation are deceptive - a single misplaced statement would likely suffice to confirm this suspicion - the next wave of selling in the DAX would not be long in coming. From a purely sentiment-technical perspective, the situation for the DAX has therefore not improved, but remains unfavorable.
by Joachim Goldberg
April 2, 2026, © Goldberg & Goldberg for Deutsche Börse
(Deutsche Börse AG is solely responsible for the content of this column. The articles do not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities or other assets.)
