The analyst specifies that "valuation remains attractive, with TotalEnergies trading at a 30% discount to US peers (compared to 50% previously) and in line with European peers, whereas it deserves a premium given the quality of its profile."

In detail, regarding these indicators, TotalEnergies announced an average Brent price of 81.1 dollars per barrel for the first quarter, compared to 63.7 USD in the previous quarter. Average selling prices also rose to 73.7 USD per barrel for liquids and 5.59 USD per MBtu for gas. The European refining margin indicator remains high at 11.4 USD per barrel.

Furthermore, "hydrocarbon production is benefiting from organic growth exceeding the 3% annual guidance, notably thanks to the start-ups of Lapa SW and Mabruk," the oil major highlighted. However, it remains hampered by losses in the Middle East of approximately 100 kboe/d (thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day), leading to overall stable production compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.

On this point, Oddo BHF explains that "Q1 production should remain stable sequentially at 2,544 kboe/d. It benefits from organic growth above the 3% annual guidance but was offset by production losses in the Middle East (averaging approximately 100 kboe/d over the quarter)."

Results expected to show significant growth

In this context, Exploration & Production results are expected to rise sharply, driven by higher selling prices and contributions from new projects. Oddo BHF specifies that Q1 results for this segment should increase by 39% to 2.5 billion USD, fully reflecting the rise in oil prices (+12.4 USD per barrel compared to the previous quarter) and the accretive contribution of new projects.

The LNG division is also expected to show a clear improvement, supported by a 10% increase in production and dynamic trading activities.

Other activities show mixed trends. Integrated Power is expected to be stable, with earnings around 500 million USD and cash flow of 600 million USD, in the absence of asset disposals. Downstream should improve, with refinery utilization rates exceeding 90% and strong trading performance.

Working capital requirements are expected to increase by approximately 5 billion USD, partly due to rising prices. The gearing ratio is expected to be around 15%, as higher cash flow partially offsets this trend.

TotalEnergies will unveil its Q1 2026 results on April 29.

After 11:00 a.m., TotalEnergies shares were flat at 77.13 EUR on the CAC 40.