Wall Street Eyes a Ceasefire

What a difference a day makes. On Wall Street, sentiment now changes so fast that journalists and commentators barely have time to rewrite the lead. U.S. stock futures are up. Oil has pulled back from its recent highs. Investors are seizing on reports that Washington has sent Iran a 15-point proposal to end the war, while mediators including Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan are trying to bring both sides together as soon as Thursday. That, at least for this morning, has been enough to lift risk appetite.

Brent crude is back below $100 a barrel. Treasury yields are easing. The dollar is softer. And even the stock market is beginning to steady itself. Donald Trump suggested that negotiations with Iran are real and are going well. The New York Times revealed the existence of a fifteen-point peace plan transmitted to Tehran via Pakistan. The US President also indicated that Iran had brought a token of good faith to the negotiating table, without specifying what it was, although it apparently relates to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is also said to have indicated that foreign vessels from so-called "non-hostile" countries are allowed to transit through the narrow corridor under certain conditions, particularly the payment of a toll.

If diplomacy gains even a little traction, markets may decide that the worst-case energy shock can still be avoided. That is the bet being placed this morning. Not confidently, exactly. More like with one eye open. And that caution is justified since Iran has denied negotiations and Israeli strikes have continued. American officials are still talking in the language of force while hinting at talks. Some analysts think hopes for a quick peace are premature and that the conflict could drag on well into April. Others argue that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz may eventually be restored without lasting economic damage. Those are two very different futures, and right now investors are trading somewhere in the narrow, uncomfortable space between them.

Even if the immediate panic cools, the economic aftershocks may not. Analysts are already warning that the hit from the war could last longer than expected. Inflation could move back toward 4% in the coming months. And even if oil stays below its recent highs, prices may not settle back into the neat little story policymakers would prefer. Input costs are already under pressure from artificial-intelligence demand, firm labor costs, and tariffs. In any case, investors appear to believe that the recent selloff has created a dip worth buying. There is some evidence of that in the names moving this morning.

Arm is surging after unveiling a new data-center CPU chip, a reminder that the AI boom remains one of the few stories powerful enough to cut through macro anxiety. Intel, Marvell, and Nvidia are also higher. Amazon is rebounding after a stumble tied to cloud-service disruption in Bahrain. Meta is climbing as it rolls out a strikingly aggressive incentive plan for executives, effectively telling them to chase a $9 trillion valuation by 2031.

For now, markets are choosing to believe that diplomacy can outrun disruption, even as the facts on the ground remain fragile and contradictory. Investors are buying the possibility that the worst can still be avoided, while knowing the margin for error is vanishingly thin.

Today's economic highlights:

Today's agenda includes: the annual and monthly inflation rates, along with the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI in Australia; speeches by RBA's Jones and later Kent; in the United Kingdom, the monthly and annual inflation rates, including the core inflation rate; ECB President Lagarde's speech in the Euro Area; the Ifo Business Climate index in Germany; in the United States, the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, the current account, monthly import and export prices, and the EIA gasoline and crude oil stocks changes. See the full calendar here.

• Dollar index: 99.230
• Gold: $4,557
• Crude Oil (BRENT): $98.82 (WTI) $87.35
• United States 10 years: 4.33%
• BITCOIN: $71,495

In corporate news:

• American Express launched a new cashback business card and plans another later this year to deepen its reach in small and mid-sized companies.
• A medical study found that AI-generated fake X-rays can deceive both radiologists and AI systems, highlighting new risks for healthcare cybersecurity and fraud.
• A Reuters columnist said companies such as SLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes, Saipem and regional energy groups could benefit from rebuilding Middle East energy infrastructure after the Iran war.
• PDD Holdings missed quarterly revenue estimates as weak Chinese consumer spending offset stronger growth at Temu.
• The German army is exploring AI tools, potentially including systems like Palantir's Maven, to speed up battlefield decision-making while keeping humans in control.
• On Holding named co-founders David Allemann and Caspar Coppetti as co-CEOs, replacing Martin Hoffmann from May 1.
• Syngenta, Corteva and Bioceres are pushing hybrid and GMO wheat technologies in an effort to revive the profitability of U.S. wheat farming.
• Delta Air Lines' ownership of its Monroe refinery is helping cushion the impact of surging jet fuel refining margins during the Middle East supply shock.
• Arm Holdings said its new AI data-center chip could generate about $15 billion in annual revenue within five years, marking a major move beyond its licensing model.
• UPS opened a $100 million logistics hub in Taiwan, its largest in Asia-Pacific, to serve rising demand from semiconductor and tech customers including Applied Materials.
• Nanya Technology said it will sell shares via private placements to SanDisk Technology, Solidigm, Cisco Systems and Kioxia Holdings to fund advanced memory manufacturing.
• BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that oil at $150 a barrel could trigger a global recession if Middle East risks persist.
• Valero Energy is preparing to restart its Port Arthur refinery after an explosion and fire shut part of the facility.
• The UK, EU and Switzerland published a joint testing roadmap for moving securities settlement to T+1 in October 2027, with firms such as Euroclear, Euronext and Clearstream involved.
• United Airlines Ventures backed Navi AI, which emerged from stealth with $6 million to use AI to accelerate pilot training.
• Meituan, Alibaba and JD.com rose after China's regulator signaled a renewed effort to curb destructive price competition in food delivery.
• Japan's Nikkei jumped on hopes of de-escalation in the Iran war, with Tokio Marine, SoftBank Group and Furukawa Electric among the biggest gainers.
• General Motors will invest $600 million in its South Korean unit to modernize plants and strengthen small SUV production.
• Foreign-branded smartphone shipments in China, including Apple's iPhones, fell 7.7% year over year in February.
• China has barred the co-founders of Manus from leaving the country while regulators review Meta's acquisition of the AI startup.
• Reliance Jio Platforms is in talks with investors including Meta, Google, KKR and Gulf sovereign funds to sell portions of their stakes in its upcoming Mumbai IPO.
• European stocks rose and oil fell as markets reacted positively to signs that the U.S. is trying to negotiate a ceasefire with Iran.
• Roblox will add new controls for users under 16 in Indonesia to comply with the country's child social media restrictions.
• A New Mexico jury ordered Meta to pay $375 million after finding it misled users about child safety and enabled child sexual exploitation on its platforms.
• Merck & Co is reportedly close to acquiring Terns Pharma for $6 billion to strengthen its oncology division, according to the FT.
• Dow Inc is doubling its plastic price hikes as the conflict with Iran blocks supply routes, according to the WSJ.
• Walt Disney and OpenAI are ending their partnership following ChatGPT's creator's decision to abandon Sora.
• Blackstone will invest $15 billion in Japanese real estate over three years.
• China is reviewing the sale of Manus to Meta for $2 billion, with the founders barred from leaving the country, according to the FT.
• Anduril and Palantir are developing software for the Golden Dome missile defense system, according to the WSJ.
• SpaceX plans to file for an IPO as early as this week, according to The Information.

Analyst Recommendations:

• Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.: BMO Capital Markets downgrades to market perform from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 65 to USD 52.
• Diamondback Energy, Inc.: Gerdes Energy Research LLC downgrades to neutral from buy and raises the target price from USD 212 to USD 213.
• Kinetik Holdings Inc.: Wells Fargo upgrades to overweight from equalweight and raises the target price from USD 47 to USD 52.
• Matador Resources Company: Gerdes Energy Research LLC downgrades to neutral from buy with a target price of USD 65.
• Mondelez International, Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn downgrades to neutral from buy and reduces the target price from USD 71 to USD 55.
• Murphy Oil Corporation: Johnson Rice upgrades to accumulate from hold and raises the target price from USD 36 to USD 63.
• Oneok, Inc.: Wells Fargo upgrades to overweight from equalweight and raises the target price from USD 81 to USD 100.
• Cf Industries Holdings, Inc.: BNP Paribas maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 95 to USD 140.
• Cheniere Energy, Inc.: Wells Fargo maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 271 to USD 335.
• Flutter Entertainment Plc: UBS maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 300 to USD 160.
• Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc.: Loop Capital Markets maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 57 to USD 43.
• Ge Vernova Inc.: President Capital Management Corp maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 908 to USD 1368.
• Kilroy Realty Corporation: BMO Capital Markets maintains its market perform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 44 to USD 34.
• Pinterest, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 35 to USD 27.
• Us Foods Holding Corp.: Wolfe Research maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 82 to USD 105.
• Venture Global, Inc.: Wells Fargo maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 10 to USD 14.
• Vornado Realty Trust: BMO Capital Markets maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 42 to USD 33.