What does the ECB have in store for us?

In the absence of real progress in the Middle East, investors carried out some sector rotation, taking profits on technology stocks and moving into healthcare and more cyclical names. This did not prevent Wall Street from setting new records, while Europe ended the week on a mixed note. As central bank decisions approach, expectations of tighter monetary policy could rise again, amid persistent inflationary pressures and a much stronger-than-expected monthly US jobs report.

Weekly variations* US 500 7,383  -2.59% HUMANA INC. +14.62% HEWLETT PACKARD ENTE... +14.31% MEDTRONIC PLC +10.65% CIENA CORPORATION -15.86% COINBASE GLOBAL, INC... -19.38% FEDEX CORPORATION -19.61% DOW JONES INDUST... 50,866.78  -0.32% NASDAQ 100 28,957.6  -4.53% FTSE 100 10,368.05  -0.4% GOLD $4,328.33  -4.65% WTI $90.18  +0.87% EURO / US DOLLAR $1.15  -1.07%

This week's gainers and losers

Up: Marvell +28.52% : It did not necessarily need proving, but when Jensen Huang says a company is going to be worth USD 1 trillion, the market tends to listen. That is what happened to Marvell this week, with the stock rising 24% at the open following the Nvidia CEO’s comments. Twilio +18.54% : A change of trend for the US company. AI, once seen as a threat to the software sector as a whole, is now driving Twilio’s growth by allowing its voice agents to handle an unlimited number of calls simultaneously. Raspberry +28.96% : What better way to ride the AI wave than a guidance upgrade? The computer hardware designer and assembler raised its outlook, supported by solid industrial demand and a sharp expected increase in profitability, against a backdrop of growing needs in embedded computing and connected infrastructure. EasyJet +18.52% : Castlelake has not yet made a formal offer, but its declared interest was enough to lift the stock. Investors are betting on the possibility of a bid, in a context where easyJet believes its valuation has been weakened by fuel-price pressures and tensions in the Middle East. Hewlett Packard +14.31% : The company reported record second-quarter results, supported by AI demand. Management therefore took the opportunity to bring forward its long-term financial targets by two years. The stock was up 36% after hours. Down: FedEx -19.61% : The transport company is finalizing the spin-off of its freight business. The new entity, FedEx Freight Holding, has been listed since June 1. The spin-off was carried out through FedEx’s distribution of 80.1% of FedEx Freight’s outstanding common shares. Circle Internet -28.96% : Director Patrick Sean Neville sold a total of 35,000 shares for USD 3,750,986. The sale represents half of his stake; he now controls 35,586 Class A ordinary shares in the company. Strategy -24.29% : The tech company known for its massive Bitcoin-buying strategy has just changed its tune. Michael Saylor built his reputation on never selling Bitcoin, yet that is exactly what he did by disposing of 32 tokens. This sale represents only a tiny fraction of Strategy’s portfolio, but the symbolism behind the move was enough for the market. Broadcom -13.66% : The semiconductor giant has proved it once again: the market is becoming increasingly demanding when companies report earnings. The group posted results slightly below expectations and struck a tone seen as cautious on its outlook. The market reacted immediately, dragging Arm and Micron down with it. Wise -13.28% : A report by the Bureau of Investigative Journalism revealed that the money transfer company is under investigation by Belgian prosecutors over suspicious transactions amounting to EUR 500 million. Wise said in a statement that it is cooperating with the prosecutor’s questions regarding its activities.

Commodities

Energy: After three sessions of gains, prices fell following the announcement of a conditional ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, seen as a step toward talks between the United States and Iran. The truce nevertheless remains uncertain and fighting continues. In addition, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place, limiting the decline in prices. Even in the event of diplomatic progress, a return to normal could take weeks. Despite the more than 50% rise in prices since January 1, OPEC does not expect any destruction of oil demand. The cartel is maintaining its demand growth forecast at 1.2 million barrels per day for this year. In terms of prices, Brent is trading at around USD 94.20 a barrel and WTI at USD 92. Metals: Gold is treading water around USD 4,460. The barbarous relic is struggling to rebound despite the decline in bond yields. The situation in the Middle East remains unclear regarding a potential peace agreement, which is doing little to ease inflation concerns. It is worth noting that central banks are continuing to buy, with 17 tonnes purchased in April. Poland and China were among the main buyers. At the same time, copper pulled back after reaching a three-week high. Investors took profits. Copper slipped below USD 14,000 per tonne in London. Despite this pullback, long-term fundamentals, such as investment in electrification and power grid infrastructure, continue to support copper demand. Agricultural products: Soybean and corn prices reached their lowest levels in several months. July soybeans closed at 1,129 cents a bushel, while corn fell to 422 cents a bushel. This decline was mainly due to favorable crop weather in the United States, combining high temperatures and rainfall. Wheat also lost ground, falling to 584 cents a bushel. Rainfall in the US Plains and higher production forecasts in Russia contributed to abundant supply on the global market. Finally, the decline in oil prices at the end of the week weighed on grains.

Macroeconomics

Macro: Those who expected the labor market to wobble were left disappointed. The US economy created 172,000 jobs in May, compared with an estimate of 85,000. Under these conditions, there is little reason to expect an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy meeting, especially as the situation in the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, is fueling inflation risks. The bond market got the message, with yields rising sharply in the wake of the jobs report. The US 10-year yield is still trading above an intermediate support level at 4.44%, while its German counterpart is holding at 2.90%. Equity markets are beginning to show some signs of nervousness, now that earnings season is over and institutional flows tend to dry up at this time of year. It is too early to sound the alarm, but investors would be well advised to be prepared, just in case. Crypto: Bitcoin is going through a difficult patch, with a decline of around 33% since the start of 2026 and a 15% drop over the past week alone, its worst performance at this stage of the year in at least ten years.After exceeding USD 125,000 at the end of 2025, the cryptocurrency is now suffering from waning investor interest. The pullback was exacerbated by the announcement that Strategy, Michael Saylor’s company and self-proclaimed perpetual buyer of the cryptocurrency, had sold a few tokens. While Strategy remained a significant net buyer in May, the sale of a few bitcoins carries heavy symbolic weight. At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs are seeing outflows rather than inflows.This loss of interest can be explained in particular by competition from new areas attracting capital. Artificial intelligence stocks, semiconductor manufacturers and prestigious upcoming IPOs such as SpaceX are capturing most investment flows. At the same time, Bitcoin is losing its status as a distinct asset: its correlation with equity markets has increased, while stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies are gaining ground within the ecosystem, gradually reducing its dominance of the digital asset market. Bitcoin fell below USD 62,000 during Friday’s session, flirting with its lows for the year.

As was the case three weeks ago, investors grew nervous about the speed of the rise in artificial intelligence-related stocks. Broadcom's results, solid but not spectacular enough for the market's taste, triggered a wave of profit-taking after US markets hit records in the middle of the week. In Europe, increased caution toward the semiconductor sector helped revive a few dormant industries, notably healthcare and cyclical sectors. Central banks will dominate the agenda over the next two weeks. The advance guard will be the Bank of Canada, on Wednesday, with rates expected to remain unchanged, and especially the ECB, on Thursday, with economists forecasting a rate hike. On the corporate earnings front, Oracle and Adobe will be the stars of the week, with the now customary question: is AI a headwind or a tailwind for these traditional players in the technology ecosystem? The editorial team wishes you a good weekend.

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*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday. The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends.