Wheat Futures Surge as Weather Worries Mount -- Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

--Wheat for July delivery rose 4.5% to $6.58 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, in reaction to poor crop health and dry weather in many growing areas.

--Corn for July delivery rose 1.3% to $4.75 1/2 a bushel.

--Soybeans for July delivery fall 0.2% to $11.90 1/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Retracing Highs: CBOT wheat futures surged after the latest Crop Progress report said only 30% of the winter wheat crop is in good or excellent condition as of April 26. "The data highlights strong early planting but ongoing concerns around wheat crop health," said Joe Davis of Futures International in a note, adding that spring wheat is also struggling to get put into the ground, per USDA data. Because of this, CBOT wheat jumped to its highest price levels in nearly 2 years, according to data from FactSet.

Hitting Sprints: The most recent Crop Progress report shows farmers pushing ahead and making full use of any open times they have to hit their corn and soybean fields. The USDA says 23% of the U.S. soybean crop is in the ground as of April 26, which is 6 points ahead of this time last year and an 11-point jump from the prior week. For U.S. corn, 25% of that crop is planted, versus 22% at this time last year. Both figures are significantly ahead of the 5-year average pace for corn and soybeans planted by this week.

INSIGHT

Grab Bag: Should a "super" El Niño climate system develop this summer, effects will vary on crops grown all over the world, said Citi Research in a note. The real impact from the system is likely to be felt by commodities trading on the Intercontinental Exchange, Citi said. "ICE soft commodities are highly exposed to a significant disruption in global weather patterns, creating major risks and volatility for production," the firm said. Cocoa, sugar and coffee may all receive tough weather that raises prices, while giving a more "mixed and muted" outlook for U.S. row crops traded on the CBOT. "North America would likely benefit from warmer temperatures during winter months, which are beneficial for corn, wheat, and soy," said Citi.

Shrinking Surplus: Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones are largely forecasting a drop-off in U.S. ethanol inventories in this week's EIA report. They expect stocks to range anywhere from 26 million barrels to 27.2 million barrels, versus the 26.95 million barrels reported last week. The analysts mostly forecast a decrease in stocks, which would be the first in over a month, according to EIA data. Rules allowing for year-round E15 nationwide were added to the prospective Farm Bill via an amendment, with the full bill being considered by the House of Representatives. The rule, if implemented, is expected to increase the amount of corn consumed for ethanol production.

Even More Upside: Hedgepoint Global has raised its outlook for Brazil's soybean production, increasing their forecast to 181 million metric tons. It's up 1.5 million tons from the firm's previous outlook, due to both a larger-than-expected planted area and higher-than-expected crop yields. "The favorable weather conditions recorded throughout most of the crop development period in the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast regions resulted in an extremely favorable environment, leading to the consolidation of very high yields that exceeded initial estimates," said the firm. Higher yields were seen in several Brazilian states, offsetting a decrease seen in Rio Grande do Sul.

AHEAD

-Bunge Global will release its first quarter 2026 earnings report at 6 a.m. ET Wednesday.

-The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

-Pilgrims Pride Corp. will release its first quarter 2026 earnings report after the stock market closes on Wednesday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at [e-mail]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

04-28-26 1511ET