Thales retreats following earnings release as markets remain demanding
The group reported a dynamic start to the fiscal year, driven by its Defense division, with a sharp increase in order intake (though slightly below expectations) and organic revenue growth nearing 10%. However, the stock is trading lower in Paris (-2%), as investors appear to be penalizing weak results in the Cyber segment and the lack of an upward revision to guidance. Thales now seems headed for its fourth consecutive session of decline.
Thales reported first-quarter revenue of 5.29 billion euros, slightly exceeding the consensus of 5.24 billion euros. This represents a 7.2% increase on a reported basis and 9.7% organic growth compared to the same period last year.
Activity was primarily driven by Defense (+13.2% reported, +14.3% organic, at 3 billion euros), while the Aerospace segment grew by 3.2% reported (+5.9% organic) to 1.4 billion euros. Conversely, the Cyber & Digital segment posted a 4.2% decline on a reported basis but a slight 2% organic increase, weighed down by significant currency headwinds.
Order intake reached 4.7 billion euros in the first quarter of 2026, up 23% reported and 27% organic. Orders were bolstered by Defense (+71% reported, +75% organic) at 2.2 billion euros. Aerospace remained stable (+1% organic), while Cyber & Digital fell by 7% reported and 1% organic.
Geographically, organic revenue growth was balanced between mature markets (+9.7%) and emerging markets (+9.8%), with notable contributions from Europe and the Middle East.
"Thales is starting 2026 with a sharp increase in order intake [...] Revenue growth momentum is solid, with organic growth of nearly 10% for the quarter," emphasized Chairman and CEO Patrice Caine.
Regarding the outlook, Thales confirmed its full-year 2026 guidance. The group is targeting organic revenue growth between 6% and 7%, implying an annual level between 23.3 billion euros and 23.6 billion euros, alongside an adjusted EBIT margin of 12.6% to 12.8% and a book-to-bill ratio above 1.
Analyst take on the publication
According to Saima Hussain, analyst at AlphaValue, this release demonstrates solid operational performance, particularly in the Defense sector. "However, lower-than-expected order intake, weaker results in the Cyber sector, and the absence of a guidance upgrade are likely to weigh on investor sentiment," the specialist noted, anticipating "a moderate to slightly negative market reaction, as focus shifts to reduced visibility despite strong overall performance."
At Berenberg, analysts maintained their "Hold" rating on the stock with an unchanged price target of 265 euros. The broker highlighted a quarterly performance driven by Defense, which offset persistent weakness in Cyber activities. The research firm also anticipates a gradual recovery for Cyber during the fiscal year. Finally, the report notes that annual targets were confirmed, with expected growth and a stable EBIT margin, but no revision to objectives at this stage.
Meanwhile, Oddo BHF reiterated its "Outperform" rating on Thales with an unchanged price target of 305 euros. The broker also pointed to quarterly revenue exceeding expectations and solid order intake. It added that valuation remains attractive, offering exposure to a diversified defense portfolio and a return to simultaneous growth across all end markets.
Lastly, Jefferies confirmed its "Buy" rating on Thales with an unchanged price target of 310 euros, highlighting "overall performance above expectations."
Thales is one of the European leaders in manufacturing and marketing of electronic equipment and systems for the aerospace, defense and security sectors. Net sales break down by product group as follows:
- defense and security systems (55.3%): C4I defense and security systems (control and monitoring systems, communication, protection, cyber-security, and other systems), defense mission systems, naval systems, electronic war systems, drones, air operation systems (air defense, air surveillance), ground defense systems and missiles;
- aerospace systems (26.7%): avionics equipment (cockpit, cabin multimedia, and simulation equipment), space systems (satellites, payloads, etc.);
- digital identification and security solutions (17.4%);
- other (0.6%).
Besides, the group owns a 35% stake in Naval Group (manufacture of naval equipment for defense and nuclear energy sectors).
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: France (27.7%), the United Kingdom (6.5%), Europe (28.1%), North America (12.4%), Asia (9.9%), Australia and New Zealand (4.1%) and other (11.3%).
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