Analysts turn cautious on EssilorLuxottica, though far from bearish
With losses exceeding 2.4% over the week, EssilorLuxottica shares are on track to post the second-largest weekly decline on the CAC 40 index. The stock has been weighed down by more cautious analyst views just under three weeks ahead of the first-quarter revenue release, scheduled for April 22.
Around 2:15 p.m., the stock was down 2% at 190.1 euros, while the CAC 40 retreated 1.5%.
Impacted by the conflict in the Middle East, which has led several financial analysts to revise their price targets, EssilorLuxottica has seen its market capitalization shrink by approximately 15.6%, or 16 billion euros, since the start of the hostilities.
While they are far from abandoning the world leader in optics, two analysts lowered their price targets on the stock today.
Oddo BHF and Barclays slash price targets
The most severe revision came from analysts at Oddo BHF, who cut their target from 306 to 251 euros, citing a higher risk profile as smart glasses gain momentum.
"The takeoff of AI glasses now creates significant potential for quarter-to-quarter growth fluctuations," the private bank noted.
Analysts, who had previously anticipated a clearly "optimistic" growth rate of 13.6% for the first quarter, say they are now adopting a more conservative assumption of +10.6%.
However, they maintain their "outperform" rating on the stock, which they consider "still attractive" given a current valuation that appears overly pessimistic to them.
Meanwhile, the team at Barclays reduced their price target on the stock from 355 to 320 euros, also warning that growth is expected to slow in the first quarter.
They anticipate growth of 11.7% for the first three months of the year, a sharp deceleration compared to the 18.4% recorded in the fourth quarter.
The British bank remains "overweight" on the stock, however, considering that its recent de-rating represents an interesting buying opportunity to gain exposure to a group with a "disruptive" smart glasses business and upcoming new launches.
Optimism tinged with caution at BofA and Jefferies
Also cautious, the team at BofA pointed to an uncertain end to the first quarter due to the current economic and geopolitical context.
They estimate that first-quarter sales should increase by about 10% due to weaker-than-expected activity in March. March was softer, with a 5 to 6 percentage point contribution from wearables and 4.5 to 5 points from other activities.
The U.S. firm estimates that the core business (excluding wearables) is worth around 200 euros per share, roughly the current stock price, leading them to believe that the market is assigning almost no value to the smart glasses business today.
In a note released yesterday, Jefferies also said it expects growth of around 10% in the first quarter given the current economic climate, while remaining positive on the investment case.
"EssilorLuxottica remains a structural market share winner, the sector's primary innovator, and the number one consolidator in optics and eye health," the U.S. broker reminded investors.
"Adding the Meta partnership and stake, we believe this justifies a re-rating of the stock," it concluded.
EssilorLuxottica is a global leader in the design, manufacture and distribution of ophthalmic lenses, frames and sunglasses. Formed in 2018, the company brings together the complementary expertise of two industry pioneers, one in advanced lens technology and the other in the craftsmanship of iconic eyewear, to set new industry standards for vision care and the consumer experience around it. Influential eyewear brands including Ray-Ban and Oakley, lens technology brands including Varilux® and Transitions®, and world-class retail brands including Sunglass Hut and LensCrafters are part of the EssilorLuxottica family.
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