Facing a "very gradual" recovery, Oddo BHF turns more cautious on LVMH
Oddo BHF announced on Friday that it has lowered its price target for LVMH shares from 695 to 583 euros, explaining that it continues to anticipate a very gradual improvement in the French luxury giant's business activity.
Oddo BHF announced on Friday that it has lowered its price target for LVMH shares from 695 to 583 euros, explaining that it continues to anticipate a very gradual improvement in the French luxury giant's business activity.
In a note published this morning, the analyst explains that this new target reflects a higher risk profile and slightly reduced estimates, while emphasizing that the investment case remains favorable on a 12-month horizon.
While the broker mentions a market in very moderate re-acceleration, it stresses that it sees no reason to expect significant improvements as early as the first quarter of the year.
Growth forecasts revised downwards
Oddo indicates that it has revised its forecasts downwards, now projecting a 1.5% organic decline in the flagship Fashion & Leather Goods division for the first three months of the year, compared to 0% previously. Still on an organic basis, it expects total group sales growth of 1% for the quarter, down from 2%.
Regarding the full 2026 fiscal year, its organic growth estimate now stands at +3.9% for Fashion & Leather Goods, compared with 4.4% previously, and +3.8% for the group, versus 4.3% before.
On the Paris Stock Exchange, LVMH shares were down 0.1% on Friday morning, within a CAC 40 index retreating by nearly 0.8%. Due to the current gloom weighing on the luxury sector, the stock has lost more than 29% since the beginning of the year.
LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE is the world leader in luxury products. Net sales break down by family of products as follows:
- fashion and leather items (46.7%): brands such as Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior, Celine, Loewe, Kenzo, Givenchy, Fendi, Emilio Pucci, Marc Jacobs, Berluti, Loro Piana, etc.;
- watches and jewels (13%): Bulgari, TAG Heuer, Zenith, Hublot, Chaumet, Fred brands, Tiffany, etc.;
- perfumes and cosmetics products (10.1%): perfumes (Christian Dior, Guerlain, Loewe, Kenzo, Givenchy brands, etc.), makeup products (Make Up For Ever, Guerlain, Acqua di Parma, etc.), etc.;
- wines and spirits (6.6%): champagnes (Moët & Chandon, Dom Pérignon, Veuve Clicquot, Krug, Ruinart, Mercier, Château d'Yquem, Domaine du Clos des Lambrays, Château Cheval Blanc, Colgin Cellars, Hennessy, Glenmorangie, Ardbeg, Belvedere, Woodinville, Volcán de mi Tierra, Chandon, Cloudy Bay, Terrazas de los Andes brands, etc.; No. 1 worldwide), wines (Cape Mentelle, Château D'Yquem, etc.), cognacs (mainly Hennessy; No. 1 worldwide), whisky (mainly Glenmorangie), etc.;
The remaining net sales (23.6%) are from selective distribution through the Sephora, DFS, Miami Cruiseline chains and Le Bon Marché and La Samaritaine department stores.
At the end of 2025, products are marketed via a network of 6,283 outlets located throughout the world.
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: France (8.3%), Europe (18%), Japan (7.9%), Asia (26.5%), the United States (25.6%) and other (13.7%).
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