September's jobs report - a month late thanks to Washington's latest flirtation with dysfunction - delivered a mixed message: nonfarm payrolls rose by a respectable 119,000, more than double expectations, yet revisions subtracted 33,000 jobs from prior months. Meanwhile unemployment edged up to 4.4%, its highest in four years.

For a labour market long held up as the pillar of America's post-pandemic resilience, this softening matters. The rise in jobless claims to 220,000 in mid-November suggests the cooling is not a statistical accident but something closer to the new normal. After years in which firms competed ferociously for workers - raising wages, offering sign-on bonuses, luring retirees back into the fray - the balance of power appears to be shifting back toward employers.

Ordinarily such a report would dominate market chatter. But these are not ordinary times. Wednesday evening, Nvidia did what only industries on the right side of history tend to do: it made an economic wobble feel temporarily irrelevant. The world's most valuable chipmaker easily beat quarterly expectations and offered a cheery forecast that sent index futures surging. A 4.9% jump in premarket trading was enough to rekindle the AI trade, which had spent the past month looking suspiciously mortal.

The relief was palpable. Investors have spent much of the year oscillating between two fears: that artificial intelligence is overhyped, or that they are underexposed. Nvidia's results encouraged the latter view. Jensen Huang, the firm's exuberant CEO, dismissed bubble anxieties: "We see something very different," he said. He even embraced the increasingly incestuous system emerging, where a handful of players simultaneously act as financiers, shareholders and customers of the same firms. Huang sees no issue with Nvidia using its cash to finance growth - namely, by funding companies that will then use that capital to pay Nvidia for chips. As long as investors believe this leads to a new gold rush for hyperscalers and their suppliers, everything is fine.

Markets took the hint. Shares of AMD, Broadcom and other chipmakers surged. Alphabet and Meta joined the party. The AI trade, which had begun to lose its swagger as questions mounted about monetization, debt-fuelled spending and whether all the GPUs in the world could ever pay their own energy bills, suddenly looked sprightly again. Bears hoping for confirmation of their suspicions were left to grumble about "overreaction," a reliable sign of wounded pride.

Yet investors may wish to avoid drawing excessively neat conclusions. A single strong earnings report does not cancel out structural realities. The United States still faces a labour market that is cooling, not collapsing, the Federal Reserve is still divided on whether interest rates should fall this year, and consumers who remain willing to spend but no longer with abandon. Markets may love headlines, but the economy is built on trendlines: and those have been edging toward slower, steadier growth.

Consider the Fed. Traders now see only a one-in-three chance of a December rate cut, down sharply in a day. Minutes from the central bank's latest meeting revealed a committee pulled between those fretting about lingering inflation and those worried about weakening demand. Neither side has a monopoly on wisdom, and both can point to evidence. But the lack of clarity ensures volatility will remain a feature, not a bug, of the coming months.

The more interesting story sits at the intersection of these two themes. A cooling labour market typically signals softer corporate earnings ahead. But AI-infused productivity gains, if real and scalable, might offset some of that drag. For now, Nvidia stands as proof that the sector remains in investment mode, undeterred by macroeconomic noise. Whether this becomes the start of a broader wave of higher-quality growth, or merely the high point before reality reasserts itself, remains uncertain.

As a result, equity markets were rallying in Asia this morning. Wall Street futures are sharply higher with the Nasdaq 100 up by more than 2%. European markets are also firmly in the green.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: real export figures in Germany; in the United States, new unemployment claims, the Philadelphia Fed business outlook, existing home sales, and the leading index will be in focus. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 100,183
  • Gold: $4,089
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $63.91 (WTI) $59.60
  • United States 10 years: 4.13%
  • BITCOIN: $91,604

In corporate news:

  • Walmart raised its annual forecasts and announced a move to the Nasdaq, after strong online sales boosted quarterly results despite a challenging consumer environment.
  • Abbott will acquire Exact Sciences for up to $23 billion to expand into cancer diagnostics, adding key products like Cologuard and Oncotype DX to its portfolio.
  • Verizon is cutting over 13,000 jobs and franchising many retail stores in a major restructuring effort aimed at cost reduction and improving competitiveness.
  • Meta was ordered by a Spanish court to pay $550 million to digital media outlets for unfair advertising advantages and data privacy violations under EU law.
  • KKR launched a $15 billion fundraising effort for its fifth Asia private equity fund, targeting sectors like healthcare and financials across key Asian markets.
  • Exxon Mobil will buy a 40% stake in Enterprise Products' Bahia NGL pipeline and help expand capacity to meet rising Permian Basin production.
  • Nvidia beat earnings expectations and dismissed AI bubble fears, sending its stock and global tech shares higher, with markets regaining confidence in AI-driven growth.
  • IBM and Cisco unveiled plans to connect quantum computers over long distances by 2030, aiming to lay the groundwork for a quantum internet.
  • TransUnion reported that 42% of U.S. consumers plan to use credit cards during the holiday shopping season, up from 38% last year, as inflation remains a top concern.
  • Palo Alto Networks announced the $3.35 billion acquisition of Chronosphere to strengthen its AI-driven security offerings and raised its annual revenue and profit forecasts.
  • Warner Music Group, along with Universal Music and Sony Music, signed licensing deals with AI music startup Klay, while Warner also settled a lawsuit with Udio and plans a joint AI-powered song platform launch in 2026.
  • Prothena is set to present its TDP-43 Cytope® program at the upcoming Neuroscience 2025 conference.
  • Edenred partnered with Tesla to integrate Superchargers into its European electromobility network, expanding access for corporate fleet users.
  • Senior upgraded its full-year outlook due to strong aerospace and defense demand, despite ongoing supply chain issues.
  • The U.S. may delay Trump's proposed semiconductor tariffs to avoid trade tensions with China, while clearing Nvidia chip exports to AI firms in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
  • Google opened its largest AI hardware engineering center outside the U.S. in Taiwan, reinforcing its supply chain and ties with the island.
  • The U.S. approved a $93 million sale of RTX and Lockheed Martin-linked Javelin and Excalibur munitions to India, restarting arms deals after a trade spat.
  • AI-related borrowing and concerns over private credit risks are causing investors to pull back from investment-grade bonds, potentially driving up corporate funding costs.
  • Larry Summers resigned from positions at OpenAI and Harvard following scrutiny over ties to Jeffrey Epstein, amid a broader institutional review.
  • Netflix informed Warner Bros. Discovery that it would maintain theatrical releases if its acquisition proceeds, according to Bloomberg.
  • Amkor shares surged after being named by Nvidia as a partner in U.S.-based chip packaging efforts.
  • U.S. and Saudi Arabia highlighted $270 billion in new deals at an investment forum, including Nvidia chip purchases by Humain and joint data center plans with xAI.
  • U.S. researchers analyzing over 135,000 cases found potential predictors of how patients respond to GLP-1 drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound, moving toward personalized obesity treatments.
  • FirstEnergy was ordered by Ohio regulators to pay over $250 million in penalties and refunds for misusing customer funds tied to a bribery scandal.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Apollo Global Management A: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equalwt and raises the target price from USD 151 to USD 180.
  • Eversource Energy: Mizuho Securities downgrades to neutral from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 81 to USD 68.
  • Globant S.a.: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 80 to USD 61.
  • Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.: Raymond James upgrades to strong buy from market perform with a target price of USD 198.
  • Marketaxess Holdings Inc.: Morgan Stanley downgrades to market weight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 247 to USD 209.
  • Nasdaq, Inc.: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equalwt and raises the target price from USD 97 to USD 110.
  • Range Resources Corporation: Gerdes Energy Research LLC downgrades to neutral from buy with a target price of USD 43.
  • Circle Internet Group, Inc.: President Capital Management Corp maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 229 to USD 136.
  • Dycom Industries, Inc.: D.A. Davidson maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 300 to USD 390.
  • Nvidia Corporation: Baird maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 225 to USD 275.
  • Valvoline Inc.: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 38 to USD 30.