At this stage, index futures suggest an opening gain of over 0.8% for the CAC 40 in Paris, 2.5% for the DAX in Frankfurt, 0.4% for the FTSE 100 in London, and 2.7% for the Euro STOXX 50.

Despite a modest recovery attempt earlier this week, the Paris index shed 8.9% over the course of March, marking its worst monthly performance since March 2020, when it plummeted 17.2% at the height of the Covid pandemic.

For the first quarter as a whole, the CAC limited its decline to just over 4%.

April: A month for a rebound?

Following a dismal March, April is expected to start on a more favorable note, driven by the strong performance of US equities on Tuesday, particularly in the tech sector. This followed remarks attributed to Donald Trump suggesting that the conflict in Iran could end within "two or three weeks."

The White House subsequently confirmed that the US President is scheduled to address the nation today at 9:00 AM (New York time) to provide an "important" update on the situation in Iran.

Wall Street capitalized on this diplomatic lull to end the final session of the first quarter significantly higher, supported by bargain hunting in stocks that had recently underperformed.

With a 3.8% jump at the close, the Nasdaq Composite shifted from "correction" territory (-11% as of Monday evening) to a more standard consolidation of 7.5% for the full first quarter. The S&P 500, which rallied more than 2.8% last night, has lost just under 5% since January 1.

Futures currently point to an opening gain of 0.3% to 0.6% this afternoon in New York.

Following a broadly positive session, the Tokyo Stock Exchange surged more than 4.7% this Wednesday for the first trading day of the second quarter.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index gained 2.2% on the day, while the CSI 300 index of blue-chip stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose 1.6%.

A fragile recovery

While equity markets are enjoying a relief rally after weeks of sell-offs, it may be premature to view the recent bounce as the start of a sustained recovery.

Recent market volatility has forced many analysts to slash their growth forecasts and upwardly revise their inflation expectations for the year. This has mechanically led to a reassessment of the monetary policy path expected from major central banks in the coming months.

Furthermore, March remains fraught with risk factors: while geopolitical risks appear to be receding, investor focus will remain locked on economic fundamentals.

Upcoming indicators, particularly those related to inflation, will be crucial in measuring price pressures and shaping expectations regarding central bank actions and interest rate trajectories.

Today's session will be driven by the final results of the S&P Global manufacturing PMI surveys for Europe, followed by the ADP private payrolls report, retail sales, and the ISM manufacturing index in the United States.

Rebalancing and the Easter break

While investors are clearly keen to rebalance their portfolios, risk-taking may remain limited ahead of the long Easter weekend. Equity markets will be closed this Friday and will not reopen until next Tuesday in Europe.

On the currency market, appetite for the dollar has been significantly dampened by Donald Trump's latest statements.

After hitting lows not seen since August 2025, the euro is rebounding to trade around 1.1575 dollars this morning.

In the bond market, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note is easing toward 4.31%.

After reaching new peaks since 2022 yesterday, the oil market is naturally trending lower amid easing tensions in the Middle East.

Brent crude is down 1% at 102.9 dollars per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is shedding 0.4% to trade below 101 dollars. They remain up 65% and 73% respectively for the year.