The ceasefire between the United States and Iran appears more fragile than ever following the failure of talks between representatives of both nations in Pakistan, which aimed to progress toward a lasting peace agreement.

"The two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is politically expedient but structurally weak, already being challenged regarding Lebanon and the definition of an 'open' Strait of Hormuz," Societe Generale noted on Friday.

"Negotiators' positions also remain far apart on all fundamental issues: the nuclear program, control of Hormuz, and the security framework," the French banking group added.

Crucially, the specter of renewed hostilities was revived on Sunday by Donald Trump's threat to personally block the Strait of Hormuz to prevent Iran from exporting its oil and gas, thereby stifling its economy.

Unsurprisingly, the resurgence of tension in the Persian Gulf is impacting oil prices, which have returned above the symbolic 100 USD per barrel threshold, with WTI currently at 104.5 USD and Brent at 102 USD.

A week defined by the start of quarterly reports...

While investors will remain highly attentive to the geopolitical landscape, this week also marks the beginning of the first-quarter earnings season in the United States.

As is customary, the banks will lead the way, starting with Goldman Sachs this afternoon, followed by JPMorgan Chase, Citi, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and BNY Mellon in the coming days.

Market participants will also digest results from groups such as BlackRock, J&J, PepsiCo, Abbott, and Netflix in the U.S., as well as ASML and Ericsson on this side of the Atlantic.

...as well as numerous macroeconomic indicators

In addition to quarterly releases, the coming week will see the publication of U.S. economic indicators including producer and import prices, industrial production, and the Empire State and Philly Fed activity indices.

Economic data is also scheduled in Europe, including inflation figures for the Eurozone and France, as well as industrial production for the Eurozone and the United Kingdom.

Brussels approval for Sanofi in CSU

In Paris corporate news, the European Commission has approved Sanofi's Dupixent as the first targeted treatment for chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU), a chronic inflammatory skin disease, in young children.

Eurazeo has completed the placement of its inaugural senior bond issue totaling 500 million euros, maturing on April 17, 2031, with an annual coupon of 4.625%. The final order book exceeded 2 billion euros, representing a fourfold oversubscription.

Manitou, the specialist in handling, personnel lifting, and earthmoving equipment, has announced the passing of its Chairwoman, Jacqueline Himsworth, who was also a long-standing shareholder and director of the company.