US-Iran Imbroglio: European Markets Seek Direction Following PMI Data
As the conflict in the Middle East enters its 25th day, geopolitical uncertainty prevails. Around 12:00 p.m., the CAC 40 is up .02% at 7,727.89 points, while the Eurostoxx 50 is down .06% at 5,570.89 points. The euphoria seen during the previous session has clearly dissipated this Tuesday following Donald Trump's about-face. The U.S. President had decided yesterday to postpone military strikes against Iranian infrastructure by five days, citing "very positive and constructive" discussions with Iran.
Published on 03/24/2026 at 07:12 am EDT
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Furthermore, two Iranian energy infrastructure sites were targeted by Israeli-American strikes early Tuesday, according to the Iranian news agency Fars, following Donald Trump's unexpected declaration to suspend strikes against Tehran for five days. Iran quickly denied any talks with Washington.
"Following the attacks carried out by the Zionist and American enemy, the gas administration building and the gas reduction station on Kaveh Street in Isfahan were targeted," the agency reported, specifying that these facilities were "partially damaged."
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for an end to hostilities in the region on Tuesday, highlighting their "consequences on gas and oil prices" during a visit to Australia.
In the commodities market, Brent crude prices rebounded by 1.39% this Tuesday, once again crossing the 100 dollar mark (101.45) after a drop of more than 10% the previous day. WTI gained 1.65% to 90.33 USD after a sharp 8% decline yesterday.
According to Fitch Ratings, "a prolonged conflict with Iran could affect numerous business sectors worldwide, primarily through higher hydrocarbon prices, supply chain disruptions and, indirectly, through weakened demand due to lower consumer confidence and higher interest rates, as well as a delay in recovery from cyclical lows." The oil and gas sector is the most immediately impacted.
"We anticipate increased pressure on refiners in the APAC region due to their heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil, leading to greater supply chain disruptions and demand destruction. European refineries would pass on the increased costs to their customers," the American credit rating agency observed.
On the equity side in Paris, Morgan Stanley has followed suit by lowering its recommendation on Teleperformance, expressing concern over the short-term performance of the customer experience outsourcing specialist, despite a valuation described as "depressed." Citi had already downgraded its recommendation from buy to neutral yesterday. In a note published this morning, analysts at the American bank indicated they had downgraded the stock from "overweight" to "equal-weight" and lowered their price target to 53 euros from 112 euros previously.
Abivax (+0.99%) is rising despite deteriorating results for the 2025 fiscal year. The biotech firm reported a net loss of 336.1 million euros compared to a loss of 176.2 million euros the previous year. Its operating loss also widened, increasing from 173 million euros to 246.1 million euros.
In Europe, Kingfisher (+0.05%) is edging higher in London on the back of improved results for its 2025-2026 fiscal year. The home improvement retailer, which operates the Castorama and Brico Dépôt brands in France, saw its adjusted pre-tax profit increase by 6% to 560 million GBP, supported by an 80-basis-point expansion in its gross margin to 38.1% and cost discipline.
Eurozone: Private Sector Activity Slowed More Than Expected in March
On the macroeconomic front, investors took note of the PMI indices this morning.
After signaling near-stagnation in the private sector in February (49.9), the HCOB flash composite PMI for overall activity in France fell to 48.3 in March, highlighting the sharpest contraction in overall activity since October 2025. Manufacturing output turned downward again in March, declining for the first time since the beginning of the year. Service sector activity also decreased, with the contraction accelerating compared to February.
Furthermore, according to preliminary data from S&P Global, the manufacturing PMI for March performed better than expected in the Eurozone. It rose from 50.8 to 51.4 points, whereas a decline to around 49.4 points had been feared. At 51.4 points, it reached a level not seen in 45 months. Conversely, in the services sector, it slumped more than expected, landing at 50.1 against an estimate of 51.1, following 51.9 points in February. This represents a 10-month low.
Finally, the Composite PMI, which synthesizes these two sectors, settled at 50.5, compared to 51.9 a month earlier. Analysts had predicted a less pronounced drop to 51 points. It is currently hovering at a 10-month low.
According to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, "the Eurozone Flash PMI underscores the risk of stagflation, as the war in the Middle East leads to a sharp increase in prices while stifling growth. Business costs have indeed recorded their highest increase in over three years, due to soaring energy prices and the strangulation of supply chains caused by the war."


















