While the financial world has been orbiting the Strait of Hormuz for weeks, market attention is expected to shift in the coming hours toward Islamabad, Pakistan, where Iranian and U.S. delegations could meet. Washington's envoys have been on the ground since Monday, and it is difficult to imagine them traveling without the assurance of finding an interlocutor, even if Tehran continues to maintain mystery regarding its participation.

At this stage, some observers might consider that Washington has already achieved its objective by degrading Iran's military capabilities, while others might counter that the Iranian regime has survived and could even emerge from the conflict with a strengthened regional position, having demonstrated its control over the Strait of Hormuz.

"Prediction markets currently assign an 84% probability to Trump announcing the end of the military operation before the end of May," reports Muzinich & Co., a private institutional asset management firm.

In any event, investors are monitoring the situation closely, even though Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM, pointed out yesterday that the issue was no longer the full reopening of the strait but rather the search for alternative transport routes, "or even their construction."

Indeed, according to the head of the International Energy Agency, it will take at least two years for global energy markets to return to normal.

Under these tense conditions, markets are retreating but not collapsing. "This resilience can be explained by several factors: abundant liquidity, quarterly results that are far from bad even in sectors more vulnerable to the crisis, the conviction that inflation will be temporary and that central banks will not overreact, investor fatigue regarding the twists and turns of the war in Iran, etc.," adds Christopher Dembik.

According to the expert, "we may still face some down sessions, but overall, the underlying trend is clearly bullish."

Stocks on the move

In market news, crude oil prices are rebounding sharply late in the session, with WTI and Brent up 3.8%, trading at 89.4 and 97.7 USD per barrel, respectively.

In Europe, the CAC 40 is supported by STMicro (+0.9%) and TotalEnergies (+0.83%) but weighed down by the decline in the defense sector. Consequently, Thales dropped 5.92% following the publication of its quarterly results. The group reported a sharp increase in order intake (though slightly below expectations) and organic revenue growth near 10%. However, the market is penalizing the weak results in Cyber and the lack of an upward revision to guidance.

Beyond Thales, all major European defense stocks are in the red, with Safran down 6.8%, Leonardo -4.87%, BAE Systems -4.25%, Qinetiq -3.78%, Hensoldt -3.57%, Dassault Aviation -3.23%, Saab -3.19%, and Rheinmetall -2.64%... a general contraction showing that the sector's pullback, underway for several weeks, is far from over.

In other news, Roche announced that the U.S. FDA has accepted its supplemental Biologics License Application (sBLA) for Gazyva/Gazyvaro (obinutuzumab) for the treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

Finally, Kering (-2.01%) was penalized by a rating downgrade from HSBC analysts, who are concerned about the slow pace of the turnaround orchestrated by the luxury group.

Several statistics to digest

In Germany, the ZEW index of investor sentiment plunged deep into negative territory this month, falling to -17.2 from -0.5 in March, while economists had only expected a decline to around -5.

Across the Atlantic, retail sales, a leading indicator of U.S. consumer spending and a pillar of growth, performed better than expected in March. They rose by 1.7%, compared to expectations of +1.4% and following a 0.7% increase (revised upward from +0.6%) in February.

Pending home sales also jumped 1.5% in the U.S., where analysts had anticipated an increase of only 0.1%. Meanwhile, the February figures were revised upward from +1.8% to +2.5%.

Finally, U.S. business inventories increased by 0.4% in February 2026 compared to the previous month, following stagnation in January (revised from an initial estimate of -0.1%), according to the Department of Commerce.

Numerous heavyweights to report tomorrow

Earnings season will continue tomorrow on both sides of the Atlantic with results from L'Oréal, EssilorLuxottica, and ABB in Europe, and publications from Tesla, GE Vernova, Philip Morris, IBM, AT&T, and Boeing in the United States.